by jimmywalter » Mon Dec 30, 2024 9:30 am
Thank you, BeAChooser.
Part of my question was the LIA periodic, some say every 400 years, which the charts you posted seem to "disprove", in that the more recent previous minimums were much less, 1050 and 850, while the LIA minimums were deeper and more frequent.
This chart of Greenland temps may be a little better
https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/History ... Grtemp.png
That page has a lot of info on other places
https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/History ... le_Ice_Age
Farms and villages in the Swiss Alps were destroyed by encroaching glaciers during the mid-17th century.[22] Canals and rivers in Great Britain and the Netherlands were frequently frozen deeply enough to support ice skating and winter festivals.[22]
Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing harbors to shipping: the population of Iceland fell by half, but that may have been caused by skeletal fluorosis after the eruption of Laki in 1783.[23] Iceland also suffered failures of cereal crops and people moved away from a grain-based diet.[24] The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and vanished by the early 15th century, as crops failed and livestock could not be maintained through increasingly harsh winters: Greenland was largely cut off by ice from 1410 to the 1720s.[25]
Snowfall "was much heavier than recorded before or since, and the snow lay on the ground for many months longer than it does today."[26] In Lisbon, Portugal, snowstorms were much more frequent than today; one winter in the 17th century produced eight snowstorms.[27] Many springs and summers were cold and wet but with great variability between years and groups of years, crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, but that may have been before the Little Ice Age).[28]
"Famines in France 1693–94, Norway 1695–96 and Sweden 1696–97 claimed roughly 10 percent of the population of each country, whereas in Estonia and Finland in 1696–97, losses have been estimated at a fifth and a third of the national populations, respectively."[29] Viticulture disappeared from some northern regions and storms caused serious flooding and loss of life, some resulted in permanent loss of large areas of land from the Danish, German, and Dutch coasts.[26]
The violin maker Antonio Stradivari produced his instruments during the Little Ice Age: the colder climate is proposed to have caused the wood used in his violins to be denser than in warmer periods, contributing to the tone of his instruments.[30] The period inspired such novelties in everyday life as the widespread use of buttons and button-holes, and knitting of custom-made undergarments to better cover and insulate the body, fireplace hoods were installed to make more efficient use of fires for indoor heating, and enclosed stoves were developed, with early versions often covered with ceramic tiles.[31]
The plight of European peasants during the 1300 to 1850 chill consisted of famines, hypothermia, bread riots and the rise of despotic leaders brutalizing an increasingly dispirited peasantry; in the late 17th century, agriculture had dropped off dramatically: "Alpine villagers lived on bread made from ground nutshells mixed with barley and oat flour."[32] Intensive witch-hunting episodes in Europe have been linked to agricultural failures during the Little Ice Age.[33]
However, worldwide,
"Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the twentieth century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia. However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this interval, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries.... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late twentieth century levels."[19] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis". UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Archived from the original on 29 May 2006. Retrieved 2 August 2007.
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2 ... 843-10.pdf
This pdf seems to indicate, as well as your first chart, that at least until around 2000, the solar level had broken threw the previous maximums-
However, your second chart, Loehle, shows that it did not.
The fig 5a shows 850 BCE was about the same as the Maunder which would give a grand solar minimum period of about 1000 years. However, with only 2 points, it is dangerous to project even that.
Thank you for your info. I now deduce that we just do not know how minimum this minimum will be in Europe or elsewhere, but in the last one, Austria suffered greatly
Thank you, BeAChooser.
Part of my question was the LIA periodic, some say every 400 years, which the charts you posted seem to "disprove", in that the more recent previous minimums were much less, 1050 and 850, while the LIA minimums were deeper and more frequent.
This chart of Greenland temps may be a little better
https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/History/Recent/Little_Ice_Age#/media/File:Grtemp.png
That page has a lot of info on other places
https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/History/Recent/Little_Ice_Age
Farms and villages in the Swiss Alps were destroyed by encroaching glaciers during the mid-17th century.[22] Canals and rivers in Great Britain and the Netherlands were frequently frozen deeply enough to support ice skating and winter festivals.[22]
Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing harbors to shipping: the population of Iceland fell by half, but that may have been caused by skeletal fluorosis after the eruption of Laki in 1783.[23] Iceland also suffered failures of cereal crops and people moved away from a grain-based diet.[24] The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and vanished by the early 15th century, as crops failed and livestock could not be maintained through increasingly harsh winters: Greenland was largely cut off by ice from 1410 to the 1720s.[25]
Snowfall "was much heavier than recorded before or since, and the snow lay on the ground for many months longer than it does today."[26] In Lisbon, Portugal, snowstorms were much more frequent than today; one winter in the 17th century produced eight snowstorms.[27] Many springs and summers were cold and wet but with great variability between years and groups of years, crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, but that may have been before the Little Ice Age).[28]
"Famines in France 1693–94, Norway 1695–96 and Sweden 1696–97 claimed roughly 10 percent of the population of each country, whereas in Estonia and Finland in 1696–97, losses have been estimated at a fifth and a third of the national populations, respectively."[29] Viticulture disappeared from some northern regions and storms caused serious flooding and loss of life, some resulted in permanent loss of large areas of land from the Danish, German, and Dutch coasts.[26]
The violin maker Antonio Stradivari produced his instruments during the Little Ice Age: the colder climate is proposed to have caused the wood used in his violins to be denser than in warmer periods, contributing to the tone of his instruments.[30] The period inspired such novelties in everyday life as the widespread use of buttons and button-holes, and knitting of custom-made undergarments to better cover and insulate the body, fireplace hoods were installed to make more efficient use of fires for indoor heating, and enclosed stoves were developed, with early versions often covered with ceramic tiles.[31]
The plight of European peasants during the 1300 to 1850 chill consisted of famines, hypothermia, bread riots and the rise of despotic leaders brutalizing an increasingly dispirited peasantry; in the late 17th century, agriculture had dropped off dramatically: "Alpine villagers lived on bread made from ground nutshells mixed with barley and oat flour."[32] Intensive witch-hunting episodes in Europe have been linked to agricultural failures during the Little Ice Age.[33]
However, worldwide,
"Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the twentieth century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia. However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this interval, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries.... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late twentieth century levels."[19] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis". UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Archived from the original on 29 May 2006. Retrieved 2 August 2007.
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2011/07/aa15843-10.pdf
This pdf seems to indicate, as well as your first chart, that at least until around 2000, the solar level had broken threw the previous maximums-
However, your second chart, Loehle, shows that it did not.
The fig 5a shows 850 BCE was about the same as the Maunder which would give a grand solar minimum period of about 1000 years. However, with only 2 points, it is dangerous to project even that.
Thank you for your info. I now deduce that we just do not know how minimum this minimum will be in Europe or elsewhere, but in the last one, Austria suffered greatly