MGmirkin wrote:Well, I don't have all the answers. Wish I did.
I didn't see anything noting where the asteroid is presently, nor its speed. However, looking at the initial animation, it appears the object never comes closer to the sun than appx Earth's orbit and doesn't go much further out than Jupiter's orbit. What is the typical eccentricity of a comet and how close do they generally come to the sun? It also looks like the body moves on a plan perpendicular to the sun's equatorial plane (or at least the plane where everything else orbits, more or less).
I finally managed to find an applet with its orbital information...
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2003+EH1;orb=1
It still seems to be a pretty considerable distance from the sun and considerably below the plane everything else orbits on (and probably the plane where solar flares and CMEs get ejected, primarily?)... One wonders, then whether it would encounter as high a plasma density in that region so far below the equatorial plane? Just thinking out loud.
~Michael Gmirkin
P.S. Running it backward, it looks like September of '08 would have been its closest approach, though still past Earth's orbit.
However, as they say, the truth will out, eventually. So, Now that I sort of know where to look, it's possible to look up other objects. For instance 17p Holmes:
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=17p;orb=1
It's orbital is a bit less perpendicular to the equatorial plane of the solar system (or at least where the other planets more-or-less orbit). However, it seems to indicate that it comes little or no closer than the orbit of Mars. However it does seem more elliptical in the orbital applet than the 2003 EH1 does. 2003 EH1 seems to be a more circular orbit.
Of course, when you run the Holmes comet backward and forward through time to October 24, 2007, it doesn't seem to be anywhere "special" in its orbit. IE, I don't think it was at perihelion. It was maybe a little after one of its closer approaches & passing through the equatorial plane (though that was around Feb/Mar 2007?)...
So, it seems like mechanism behind the exact timing of major flare-ups is still up in the air.
Though I can't find a quote at the moment, I recall Thornhill saying that it's nearly impossible to predict precisely when a comet will flare up due to electrical interactions (not knowing the precise charge on the comet or the conditions in the varying plasma regions it's passing through, in terms of charge density, etc.). But sometime at or after closest approach seems to be the "most likely" time to see activity. Don't recall where I read the quote. I thought it was in an article on Holoscience, but seem to be unable to track it down.
Anyway, I do agree that nailing down the reasons that say "Holmes 17p flared but 2003 EH1 didn't flare" will inevitably help to understand the mechanism, timing, circumstances, etc. The answer may not be overly "simple" though. But it's questions like these that do eventually (in an ideal world) lead to better answers.
As another example, comet Lulin ([url-
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?ID=dK07N030;orb=1]Comet C/2007 N3[/url]; not to be confused with
145523 Lulin [2006 EM67]) seems to be on a far more eccentric orbit (more typical of what the EU seems to say would be the typical "comet" case)...
http://www.space.com/spacewatch/090206- ... lulin.html
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?ID=dK07N030;orb=1
Or there's
Halley's Comet (
1P/Halley)
Comet Encke seems to vacillate between just inside Jupiter's orbit and just inside Mercury's orbit, but again seem close to the equatorial plane and more elliptical than circular.
Comet Hale-Bopp is extremely elliptical, spending a lot of time in the far outer reaches...
Comet McNaught (C/2006 P1) is also an extremely elliptical outer reaches comet.
It's seeming like the elliptical orbit plays a bit role in the "major comets?" Maybe it's just me. What are some of the other major comets?
LINEAR (moderately eccentric, but still between Earth and Jupiter)?
Shoemaker-Levy 9 (D/1993 F2; in various pieces), NEAT (
C/2002 V1,
C/2001 Q4; both seem designated "NEAT," go figure!),
Schwassmann-Wachmann,
Biela,
Borrelly,
Hyakutake (another long-period comet), etc.
There seems to be something of a range of eccentricities & perihelion / aphelion locations. One wonders if it's possible to get a list of the comets with the highest known magnitude and match them up on NASA's orrery to see if there's a correlation with eccentricity and/or inner solar system vs. "outer limits" objects.
Perhaps the "
Great Comets"?
Apparently Halley, Biela, Hyakutake, Hale-Bopp and McNaught all make the list of "great comets"...
Just something for us all to chew on, I guess.
If nothing else:
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi seems to be a good spot for getting orbital data on small bodies like asteroids / comets, as long as you know the designation (or occasionally the name if it's well-known enough)...
~Michael Gmirkin