Daily Geomagnetic Storm Watch with a Quiet Sun

[Brigit]

SUBSIDING GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A G1-class geomagnetic storm that began during the early hours of Feb. 19th when Earth entered a high-speed solar wind stream is now subsiding. Arctic sky watchers should remain alert for occasional bright auroras as the event fitfully peters out.

MAGNETIC CRACK SPARKS RARE BLUE AURORAS: Yes, there really are cracks in Earth's magnetic field. One of them opened on Feb. 18th, sparking some of the strangest auroras in years. First, the night sky turned blue over the Lofoten Islands of Norway:

"After snow, sleet, and heavy wind all day, the clouds parted for a 2 hour display of spectacular pale green, blue, and purple auroras over the mountains of Reine," says photographer Matthew Steinberg.

Blue auroras are rare. Auroras are usually green, and sometimes red. Those are the colors produced by oxygen when it is excited by electrons raining down from space. Blue is a sign of nitrogen. Energetic particles striking ionized molecular nitrogen (N2+) at very high altitudes (> 400 km) produces a cold azure glow of the type captured in Steinberg's photo. Usually the blue is faint, but on Feb. 18th it was strangely intense.

Next, the auroras turned green again. But they were strangely shaped. This was the view from Tromsø, Norway:


"I couldn't believe my eyes," says photographer Markus Varik, a longtime aurora tour guide who previously thought he had seen it all. "This strange rippling band formation unfolded overhead. It was so different than the usual aurora arcs. Truly magic! Let's hope for some more strange shapes tomorrow!"

Indeed, it could happen. A G1-class geomagnetic storm is underway, and more Arctic auroras are in the offing. Stay tuned. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

[Brigit]

So here is the sun just 3 days before the Earth encountered the stream of particles.


And here it is on the 16th, 2 days before the blue aurora:


I know I use AIA 171 instead of AIA 193, but there are not any promising coronal holes right now.

The reasons given for the auroral display and geomagnetic activity are

• A minor but long-lasting crack has opened in Earth's magnetic field

• (that is, "BsubZ tilted south"). Solar wind poured in to fuel the display--no solar storm required.

[Brigit]

But there were also some NEOs less than 1 LD --
0.5 and 0.6 LD, on Feb 18th, which just got listed today.

[JP Michael]

@Brigit

Got any updates? We've been getting heaps of weird clouds and rain here in Syd the last 2 weeks or so.

[Brigit]

by JP Michael » Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:29 pm
We've been getting heaps of weird clouds and rain here in Syd the last 2 weeks or so.

Glad to see that you took the time to start a thread on that very topic.

So many people have recording devices and internet connectivity now -- which means there are witnesses and records of atmospheric phenomena which were not available before! I have a wonderful small collection of videos showing earthquake lights made by people with phones; the Russian 2013 meteor was recorded by dashcams; and of course world wide cloud formations are of endless interest.

I want
to remain on the topic of Earth's electrical responses to even the smallest near earth objects.

[Brigit]

I think that while the sun is quiet, there is a wonderful opportunity to explore other possible electrical events in the earth's near space environment which may trigger geomagnetic storms and intense auroral displays at the poles.

[JP Michael]

Cept the sun ain't quiet! Have you seen the CMEs flying off that thing in the last week or two? Ive been following Wages World on youtube. He has some mighty interesting commentary.

[neilwilkes]

Cept the sun ain't quiet! Have you seen the CMEs flying off that thing in the last week or two? Ive been following Wages World on youtube. He has some mighty interesting commentary.

Sorry JP, but one flare is not exactly "CME's flying off the Sun" - I keep a daily eye on this one, and it is nowhere near to that level yet, and this cycle will be as weak - if not weaker - than the last one as we march towards Grand Minimum.
And given the state of our rapidly weakening (and reversing) magnetic field that is just as well.

[JP Michael]

Sorry JP, but one flare is not exactly "CME's flying off the Sun" - I keep a daily eye on this one, and it is nowhere near to that level yet, and this cycle will be as weak - if not weaker - than the last one as we march towards Grand Minimum.
And given the state of our rapidly weakening (and reversing) magnetic field that is just as well.

Yet they count no less than 11 events since 29th May, including an M1.1 and a C9.3 (but most in B1-4 range). Sure its not like an active phase, but it is interesting activity for the quiet phase.

[neilwilkes]

Sorry JP, but one flare is not exactly "CME's flying off the Sun" - I keep a daily eye on this one, and it is nowhere near to that level yet, and this cycle will be as weak - if not weaker - than the last one as we march towards Grand Minimum.
And given the state of our rapidly weakening (and reversing) magnetic field that is just as well.

Yet they count no less than 11 events since 29th May, including an M1.1 and a C9.3 (but most in B1-4 range). Sure its not like an active phase, but it is interesting activity for the quiet phase.

And that is my point - no CME flying off it, just a few small to minor flares.
The quiet phase is done - we are now starting the run to Sunspot Maximum (this will take around 18 months to get going) and it will almost certainly be around the same as last time, maybe weaker. Bear in mind also those 11 flares were mostly pointed well away from Earth - the Earth facing quiet effect first noticed by Maunder is still in effect which really slams home the reality of heading into Grand Minimum some time this century (if we don't get clobbered by the Galactic Current sheet triggering the repeat micronova first).

When things get really interesting will be in about 3 years time and we start to see several C to M class flares on a daily basis, but even then a flare is one thing, and a CME is another entirely different - albeit related one

[danda]

So how do you/we see this playing out over the next years/decades/cycles? Are we headed for a new little ice age, and if so, when would the maximum effects be likely to be felt?

Related: has anyone else read the book Solar History by Sacha Dobler? It makes a fascinating connection between solar activity and human mass activities, especially wars and violence that tend to correspond with Solar Maxima. Evidence is also presented that we are becoming more peaceful (enlightened?) over time as well, and that each Grand Solar Minimum tends to ratchet up along that path. This gives me some hope for the coming years....

The author also states (paraphrasing) that weather is affected on earth during [Grand] Solar Minima primarily because the Solar Wind (Sun's electrical field) diminishes and allows more "cosmic rays" ie particles/ions into the region from intragalactic space, which provide cloud seeds; so it is the increased cloud coverage that causes erratic weather, failed crops, etc during Solar Minima, not really the sun's visible light output which barely changes. I'm curious if that has been discussed in EU circles? Maybe it is common knowledge here?

Full title is: Solar History: The Connection of Solar Activity, War, Peace and the Human Mind in the 2nd Millennium

[Brigit]

SC 24 was a huge disappointment for

certain people. (;

Solar Max was a fizzer and there were more record low temps broken in the contiguous United States than record highs; there was a "drought" of hurricanes, and sea ice extent oscillated in its usual range -- the southern ice fields gaining extent whenever the northern ice diminished below average. Many people risked their careers and reputations simply pointing these facts out, thankfully.

The computer models which forecast the next Solar Maximum are all over the place, so one of them is bound to be correct. I have wondered if the Electric Sun model should be able to utilize radio astronomy to detect changes at and above the sun's poles to some solar activity in advance; but I may be way, way out on a limb.

However, SC 24 provided 489 spotless days and the flatlined sun which made it a very interesting time to look carefully at the near space environment of the earth, and try to test the idea that the sun is not the only cause of geomagnetic storms and aurorae on earth.

The reason this could be so is because in the EU model, asteroids and comets spend time on elliptical orbits within the sun's radial electric field, so that some (not all) gain enough of a charge difference with respect to the Earth that there may be discharge from the Earth or within the Van Allen Belts.

test 400x167 graph
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... umbers.png [/img]

[Cargo]

Maybe if we could predict Aurore activity, or least 'see it' in enough real time to track the charge/flow from solar space, around the belts, and into/out of the planet. I can't imagine, although I guess it's possible at jref, to find anyone who thinks that light display is internally generated.

We also may be completely missing the scale dynamics of the solar system in action. If we think about the Volt differential just in flying a plane up into the air, mile by mile gaining huge differences, just imagine a similar change going away from the Sun to the edges of it's atmosphere, way way out there. There's a reason the recent asteroid missions have all being very careful not approaching them too quickly. Except when they shot one. The solid dense and hard comet is a spark flying through mostly the Sun's own space, what about the huge charge bubbles surrounding most planets. It is very likely that such an object could overcome a sheath boundary if it's got the right properties, and 'short' the space between planets/moons. Instantaneous connection or leakage causing a massive plasma-on mode.

[Brigit]

by Cargo » Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:56 pm

We also may be completely missing the scale dynamics of the solar system in action. If we think about the Volt differential just in flying a plane up into the air, mile by mile gaining huge differences, just imagine a similar change going away from the Sun to the edges of it's atmosphere, way way out there. There's a reason the recent asteroid missions have all being very careful not approaching them too quickly. Except when they shot one. The solid dense and hard comet is a spark flying through mostly the Sun's own space, what about the huge charge bubbles surrounding most planets. It is very likely that such an object could overcome a sheath boundary if it's got the right properties, and 'short' the space

Yes, the comets and asteroids are charged objects in the Electric Universe, experiencing differing charge stresses as they travel in the Sun's electric field.

And if this is the case, then they can electrically discharge within the earth's space environment; if it is not the case, then the sun is indeed the only source of electrons and protons for all auroral activity at the poles. If the EU model is correct, then NEOs and other space debris can -- under some conditions -- be a huge extra source of electrons, protons, and "smoke" which both fire the aurorae, and seed very high clouds at the poles.

[Brigit]

Under normal conditions, the auroral oval is a flickering ring of lights that varies in brightness, but never completely goes out.

The latitude of the Aurora Borealis is about 66 degrees north.
"Indeed, the aurora borealis is visible most nights, weather permitting, within a band several hundred miles wide that's centered at about 66 degrees north — about the same latitude as the Arctic Circle. This "standard" aurora is generated by the solar wind — the particles streaming constantly from the sun."

During heightened solar activity, energetic particles from the sun enter the zones surrounding the magnetic poles and the auroral oval leaps to life, displaying different forms, colors, and appearing in lower latitudes -- sometimes as far south as 40 degrees north in the US.

"Greenish rays may cover most of the sky polewards of the magnetic zenith, ending in an arc that is usually folded and sometimes edged with a lower red border, that may ripple like drapery. The display ends with a poleward retreat of the auroral forms, the rays gradually degenerating into diffuse areas of white light."

"The mechanisms that produce auroral displays are not completely understood. It is known, however, that charged particles arriving in the vicinity of Earth as part of the solar wind are captured by the Earth's magnetic field and conducted downward toward the magnetic poles. They collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms, knocking away electrons to leave ions in excited states. These ions emit radiation at various wavelengths, creating the characteristic colours (red or greenish blue) of the aurora."
~Britt1988

Now the question is, while the sun is quiet, can I get you some energetic electrons and protons delivered to the poles from another source within the Earth's near space environment?

The answer is yes I can.