Speaking of wasting money …

Has science taken a wrong turn? If so, what corrections are needed? Chronicles of scientific misbehavior. The role of heretic-pioneers and forbidden questions in the sciences. Is peer review working? The perverse "consensus of leading scientists." Good public relations versus good science.
BeAChooser
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Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by BeAChooser » Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:27 am

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... rance.html
World's most powerful MAGNET is ready to be shipped to France for a nuclear fusion project that will replicate reactions in the SUN to create 'the ultimate clean energy source'
See the problem folks? If the mainstream doesn’t understand the workings of the sun, this is money down the drain. Thank you, mainstream astrophysicists. How much money? Well, the article claims ITER is a $24 BILLION dollar effort. That’s likely pie in the sky from ITER. Other sources (for example, https://www.newsweek.com/breakthrough-i ... on-1507324 and https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/1 ... 416a/full/ ) say the projected cost will be $45-65 BILLION dollars (which would be nearly 10 times the original projected cost).

It was Paul Dabbar, DOE undersecretary for science, who provided the $65 billion estimate to the Senate in April of 2018 and he said that $65 billion only covered construction costs, not operating costs. He’s probably right since before Covid ITER was spending about $2 billion a year leading to the $24 billion figure. Spending however will likely go up towards the end of the project (don't all projects do that?) and in May of 2020 ITER admitted (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-pandemic ) that because of COVID they were spending over $1 million per day (that's $3.6 billion a year) with the expectations of higher costs and delays in testing.

And note this … with all that cost, ITER is still just a experiment to try and understand the physics enough to produce more power than input. ITER claims that a fusion pilot plant will be constructed in the 2035-2040 timeframe based on the results of this experiment and that the first generation of commercial fusion power plants will be online by 2040 to 2050 (30 years from now). But when have the fusion seekers ever met a schedule? In fact, DEMO is what ITER calls the machine that will be built next and which will lead to a commercial prototype. But DEMO actually describes several machines (all most like bigger than ITER!) built by individual countries. And the people outside ITER are only talking about demonstrating industrial fusion electricity by 2050. Not building commercial power plants as ITER claims. The reality is that the DEMO phase might likely last till 2060 with perhaps four countries building $100 billion dollar plus machines (the race for fusion). Then they have to build the prototypes of the commercial plants … another 10 years and $100 billion, each? ALL based on the assumption that they actually understand the sun.

And by the way, ITER talks about 50 megawatts in / 500 MW out for the ITER experiment … but the 50 MW in is power (electricity) to heat hydrogen and the out is heat … not electricity (power) output. Thus, there’s a lot of deception going on here by ITER … by basically the same crowd who control astrophysics and particle physics. Even though the above lie has been pointed out repeatedly (even as early as 2006), ITER's proponents are still telling the lie to the public. For example, here’s (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-08/ ... e/12114948 ) a 2020 article quoting an expert in the nuclear community saying "ITER consumes 50 megawatts of power to produce this plasma at 150 million degrees, and the goal is to produce 500 megawatts of power from that plasma.” Well it won’t because 500 MW of heat is NOT 500 MW of power. In fact, ITER will NOT even break even despite all claims to the contrary by those who sold a gullible public the program (see http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/iter/IT ... eactor.pdf).

It’s all one huge incestuous boondoggle that YOU will be paying for a long time.

All of it likely based on a misunderstanding about the way the sun works.

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paladin17
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by paladin17 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am

How is this post related to Electric Universe?

BeAChooser
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by BeAChooser » Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:43 pm

paladin17 wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 am
How is this post related to Electric Universe?
Because the people pushing gnome astrophysics and gnome particle physics are friends of the the ones pushing fusion in the ITER manner. As I clearly pointed out in my post, the success of ITER assumes they now fundamentally understand the way the sun works (contrary to the way electric universe folks think it does). Agreed? So if they are wrong then this is just more hundreds of billions of dollars wasted because mainstream astrophysics and those that report it are simply pigheaded ... and dishonest. Same as they are being with us. See? I think we need to focus on the costs of what's happening here, paladin. Because they are spending our children's future on a pipe dream. By the way, did you see that the government is reopening the investigation of cold fusion because there is something going there that they can't explain? And how much money is being aimed at understanding that? A pittance compared to the $3-4 billion ITER is spending every year on ITER. And you wonder why there are no resources available to fund research into the electric universe and maybe really help save humanity from itself? Just saying ...

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JP Michael
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by JP Michael » Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:35 am

I wonder why they need to go to 150 million degrees to 'simulate the sun' when the sun, allegedly, is less. 'Gravity'?

BeAChooser
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by BeAChooser » Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:33 pm

JP Michael wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:35 am
I wonder why they need to go to 150 million degrees to 'simulate the sun' when the sun, allegedly, is less. 'Gravity'?
Actually, yes. ITER needs 150 million degrees (ten times hotter than the center of the sun). Here's their own website explaining this: https://www.iter.org/mag/2/18 . And the reason why is indeed related to gravity. The plasma at the center of the sun (due to gravity) is said to be very dense compared to what they can achieve in the ITER machine … where the plasma is said to be a million times less dense than the air we breath. So because of the low density, to get enough collisions between the atoms that will fuse to reach a Q high enough to be a viable power plant, they need much higher temperatures than the sun.

Even the LPPFusion (Erin Lerner) approach (Dense Plasma Focus or DPF) to commercial fusion power needs temperatures much higher than the sun to break even. In fact, in 2016, their plasma focus device achieved a temperatures of 2.8 BILLION degrees … 200 times the temperature at the center of the sun … 20 times that of ITER! And they've achieved that on a budget of just $7 million dollars as of 2016, rather than the AT LEAST 10000 times that amount the mainstream will soon have spent just on ITER. Their approach is innovative and logically consistent with EU concepts. And the resulting DPF power plants would be small and a tiny fraction of the cost of the plants the mainstream folks are contemplating.

But they need money to realize their dream. Can they get the $50 MILLION in funding they say is necessary to solve the remaining problems (like increasing the density of the plasma) and build a prototype commercial plant? Not from the government. No, all the government's money is going to the behemoth mainstream fusion boondoggles. And I think that's because Lerner is one of the chief proponents of the Electric Universe. What he's doing is a threat them and their scam, no less than his EU theories are a threat to the gnome loving Big Bangers. If he triumphs they lose money, power and prestige ... so they continue to ignore him. Yet I suspect his is one of the most promising concepts out there because it will use the natural behavior (and instabilities) of plasmas to achieve fusion, rather than trying to fight those instabilities with massive containment systems.

Here’s a video that explains DPF, in case you haven't seen it …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4WJdkHmq64&t=18s

Now notice something about the DPF approach. It doesn’t produce radioactive waste, unlike mainstream concepts of fusion. Wouldn’t that be nice? Also notice how they plan to produce electricity from the reactor … without turbines … directly from the ion beam that results from operation of the device and from the x-rays that result. Wouldn't that be nice? And what they propose would result in a SMALL power plant … tiny in comparison to ITER or what’s coming after ITER … yet one that would (they say) produce about 5 MW of electricity. One you could put in your garage or on a ship or a plane. Wouldn't that me nice?

Yet, the mainstream is not at all interested. And the reason is obvious. The mainstream agenda is not about producing electrical power but about maintaining/increasing political power and financial wealth (for the few rather than the many). It's about control over people. Decentralized power of the sort Lerner envisions is a threat to the establishment's concept of the future ... with the government (the elites) having a power monopoly over all of us (both politically, financially, and electrically) ... just like ancient Egypt's rulers had a water monopoly that let them control their masses. THAT is the real reason the mainstream hates the idea of the electric universe and where it might lead. Because it actually gives power back to the people.

Here is Lerner and his staff talking about that very thing (from March of this year):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P7KatR__Po&t=4s

Watch that video and you'll see why I hate the people now in charge of fusion research funding ... just as much as I hate those in charge of astrophysics funding. And many other fundings. They are bunch of liars who agenda is not what they claim. Just saying ...

BeAChooser
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by BeAChooser » Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:50 pm

By the way, here’s the sort of outright LIES mainstream fusion proponents are STILL foisting on the public to justify the hundreds of billions of dollars of the public's money that will be spent on their boondoggle experiments, demos and prototypes over the next few decades *as planned* …

https://www.neimagazine.com/features/fe ... r-8826122/
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in southern France seems to be leading the way, with machine assembly works already underway. This will be the world’s largest tokamak nuclear fusion reactor, and capable of producing more power than it consumes. When its first plasma experiments begin in 2025, it will use 50MW of injected heat to produce 500MW of fusion power for long pulses of 400 to 600 seconds. Deuterium–tritium fusion experiments will follow by 2035.
That’s a LIE. It will NOT produce more *power* than it consumes as already mentioned. It will produce 500 MW of heat (IF it works). ITER now admits it will require 300 MW of electricity to produce the 500 MW of heat. They originally claimed it would require only 50 MW of electricity to operate. So they LIED about that. The truth is that ITER could not come close to breaking even in terms of energy (electricity) if they tried to convert that 500 MW of heat back to electricity (so they aren’t going to even try). The truth is that ITER is no where near the Q=10 machine that they claimed in order to sell the program. in other words, they lied about that. And now, since they’ve been caught in the lie, they obfuscate when asked about Q. As pointed out in the New Energy Times article I linked previously, now “They say that the total input power and total output power rates for the reactor are irrelevant. Rather, they say, the reactor is designed to create fusion reactions that produce ten times the thermal power used to heat the fuel. That's right. But they told the public for three decades that ITER would produce, for example, the equivalent of a small, commercial, electricity-producing power plant – from a rate of only 50 MW input power, as shown in this log (see http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/iter/IT ... uses.shtml)." And as that link proves, that lie was promulgated scores and scores of times by the ITER proponents in every venue you can name. And just like in the mainstream astrophysics arena … the fusion mainstreamers had much to gain by lying. BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars converted to expensive homes, cars, vacations, educations for their children, retirement plans. etc. etc etc … all paid for by YOU.

Now, the linked article at the top of this post also states
As part of its net zero carbon emissions by 2050 goal, the UK government has also announced that it is looking for a 100 hectare site to build the world’s first prototype nuclear fusion power plant, and hopes to start construction by 2030. The Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP) project, as it is known, is being overseen by the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), and aims to have an operational facility by 2040.
First, notice that the mainstream fusion proponents are linking their effort to another scam designed to enrich the elite and give the power (not electrical) over people. The carbon claims of climate change. That too is a total scam. It was designed to put billions of dollars into the pockets of a few leftists. The British fusion proponents are engaging in more pie the sky spending in a separate multi billion dollar fusion *experiment* that isn’t even going to wait for the ITER results before supposedly becoming operational. So why did they need ITER in the first place? Hmmmmm? And to sell this program, the British fusionists claim their STEP *plant* will produce a net energy gain of 100MW. But that’s probably just meaningless parsing of words like the ITER crowd did. I assert this because I’ve found NO details as to the amount of electricity that will used versus the amount of electricity produced by STEP. In fact, details about the machine and program are VERY sketchy and very vague. After all, they are at the very beginning of the design process. And this article on STEP from 2020 (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12 ... er-station ) even states that it will only generate “50 megawatts of fusion power”. So the numbers are VERY loose-goosey. The truth is that you know all these programs are a scam when the *urgent* need for them is being sold using CO2 induced global warming (another scam) as the boogyman. Just as in the caae of astrophysics, there are other objectives than what’s stated … namely making money that can be converted to “expensive homes, cars, vacations, educations for children, retirement plans. etc. etc. etc.” for those participating in the scam. And giving them political power over YOU.

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JP Michael
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by JP Michael » Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:45 am

Cheers. I haven't followed much of Lerner, although I was already aware of his DPF using proton-boron 11 fusion to generate net current.

The rest is mostly politics, as you say.

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D_Archer
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by D_Archer » Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:02 am

i guess "dense" plasma is a lie...

ps. the money is not wasted it goes straight into the coffers of the richest people of the world.. it is just another way to syphon money from unwashed masses.

Regards,
Daniel
- Shoot Forth Thunder -

BeAChooser
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Re: Speaking of wasting money …

Unread post by BeAChooser » Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:45 pm

D_Archer wrote:
Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:02 am
i guess "dense" plasma is a lie..
Well at least Lerner isn't trying to suppress the ITER folks. In contrast, Dr. Richard Seimon, Fusion Energy Science Program Manager at Los Alamos, demanded that Dr. Hank Oona, one of the physicists involved in Lerner's work, dissociate himself from comparisons that showed the DPP results to be superior in key respects to those of the tokamak. Seimon also reportedly pressured Dr. Bruce Freeman, another physicist and co-author of a paper with Lerner describing DPP, to advocate the removal of all tokamak comparisons from the paper. "Both of my colleagues in this research have been threatened with losing their jobs if they don’t distance themselves from comparisons with the tokamak" says Lerner. Sounds like the mainstream might be worried that their effort can't stand on it's own merits. :D

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