The Precautionary Principle

Beyond the boundaries of established science an avalanche of exotic ideas compete for our attention. Experts tell us that these ideas should not be permitted to take up the time of working scientists, and for the most part they are surely correct. But what about the gems in the rubble pile? By what ground-rules might we bring extraordinary new possibilities to light? If you have a personal favorite theory, that is in someway related to the Electric Universe, this is where it can be posted.
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Brigit
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by Brigit » Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:19 am

Here is a question raised by a commenter:

"[Imperial College epidemiologist Neil] Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.

So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?"
“Oh for shame, how these mortals put the blame upon us gods, for they say evils come from us, when it is they rather who by their own recklessness win sorrow beyond what is given…”
~Homer

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Brigit
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by Brigit » Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:56 am

Now putting aside the public's and the media's complete trust in and total abandonment to a few select
expert epidemiologists and the computer simulations,

I would like to point out that it did not improve after this.

It would have seemed logical that any attempts to close businesses and put people on house arrest would have caused at least some of our fellow countrymen to ask some simple questions. The fact is, this was announced as a pandemic before any one knew anything about the fatality rate. The fatality rate must include the comparison of the diagnosed cases with the fatalities. Fatalities alone told us very little.

Instead of working out an actual fatality rate for this virus, reporting on death certificates became a very fluid situation. Within a short time, WH 0 issued guidelines for recording Cl9 on the medical certificate of cause of death. It said that Cl9 "should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for all decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."

I do believe this set of guidelines made the fatality rate of this strain of [blank] impossible for anyone to ever determine.

Have you ever seen a person not wearing a mask? These may be just a few of the reasons why.
“Oh for shame, how these mortals put the blame upon us gods, for they say evils come from us, when it is they rather who by their own recklessness win sorrow beyond what is given…”
~Homer

jacmac
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by jacmac » Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:44 pm

Brigit:
The fact is, this was announced as a pandemic before any one knew anything about the fatality rate.
It is not necessary to know "THE fatality rate" to call the worldwide rapid spread of a disease a PANDEMIC.
There are many factors causing death rates. The higher death rates among minorities in the U S being one example.

The overflowing parking lot of a local tavern at 11 am on St Patrick's Day where I live,
along with the very loud raucous sounds of people drinking while being packed inside,
is factual evidence that those people were NOT following The Precautionary Principle.

:lol:

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Brigit
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by Brigit » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:34 am

by jacmac » Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:44 am
"It is not necessary to know "THE fatality rate" to call the worldwide rapid spread of a disease a PANDEMIC."

It was an absolute disaster and a total failure for a supposedly literate and numerate country not to have demanded to know the fatality rate of this disease before allowing governments to assume emergency powers.

We already assign a .1% fatality rate to annual influenza seasons, but we do not quarantine the healthy or shut down the livelihoods of millions of people. And early on, various medical doctors did carry out county and city tests for antibodies. These found a 3-4% infection rate in the population, which gave the proper denominator for the reported fatalities, and reflected a 0.1 - 0.2% fatality rate for cl9. When all is said and done, there is a 99.9% chance of recovery for most people. In fact, 2017 saw a particularly bad flu season and over 79,000 people died from it in the US. It was up about 10,000 from the year before. There is always some risk.

Unfortunately with viral respiratory ailments, the most vulnerable are those with serious co-morbidities, and perhaps the very aged -- perhaps, but not always. For cl9, there was an average of 2.6 additional causes or conditions per death. And, as pointed out, the cdc had changed the requirements for reporting on death certificates to include "tested, assumed, or suspected cases" of cl9.

Now taking a step back to see the entire picture, I suggest that the use of the Precautionary Principle in this case gave power to a small cadre of expert epidemiologists to calculate the risk of one threat, and contrary to all good sense, advise policies which reset the entire society -- all to avoid a simulated outcome.

By the way, although it is always nice to think of the poor as jacmac has, I simply don't think that to save "the poor" (or anybody else for that matter) you radically increase unemployment across the entire world. Their emergency food supplies ran out long ago, they have slipped even further below the poverty level, and the government promises of help don't always come.


ref: https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensible ... -strategy/
ref: https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news ... -last-year
ref: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/31/ ... ed-by-177/
“Oh for shame, how these mortals put the blame upon us gods, for they say evils come from us, when it is they rather who by their own recklessness win sorrow beyond what is given…”
~Homer

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Brigit
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by Brigit » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:07 pm

On the contrary, it is a new insight and mad idea for governors to unilaterally declare an emergency by utilizing a computer simulation -- especially one produced by Neil Ferguson.
“Oh for shame, how these mortals put the blame upon us gods, for they say evils come from us, when it is they rather who by their own recklessness win sorrow beyond what is given…”
~Homer

jacmac
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by jacmac » Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:42 pm

Many people say: "It's just like the flu"
From your reference:
Influenza was deadlier last season than it has been for at least four decades, killing 80,000 Americans.
80,000 deaths is more than double the number expected in a typical "bad" flu season.
In recent years, the annual flu death toll has ranged from 12,000 to 56,000 deaths, the CDC said.
That shows the average flue deaths are about 30,000 a year. (in the US)

Many people say "Covid didn't kill all those people; most had co-morbidity conditions".
You said:
Unfortunately with viral respiratory ailments, the most vulnerable are those with serious co-morbidities,
Then you figured out that very low "death rate".
Webmed says:
The flu typically kills by triggering other deadly conditions such as pneumonia, stroke and heart attack.
So, which way is it ?
The Flu is a TRIGGER, but the Covid can't be counted that way.
If Covid didn"t kill all those with underlying conditions, then the flue didn't either.
So, if we use the same standards for assigning death to the Covid-19 as we do with Influenza then the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US have been ABOUT 15 times that of the Flu ( 30 x 15 = 450)
(We are over 550,000 deaths now but that has been more than one year. I don't have time to find the correct figure.)

Did the US government have a serious public discussion about the problem....NO.
Did the Flu cause many places to store dead bodies in refrigeration trucks because morticians could not keep up...NO
Did my primary care Dr. , who also works in a hospital ER, report that he was exhausted watching people die from Covid-19 every day....YES

Jack

jackokie
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by jackokie » Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:40 pm

jacmac

There are at least two problems when comparing the flu with Covid-19:

1. The raw data and methods used for the statistics, and
2. The politicization of the problem.

First , the statistics - there were several opportunities for the data to be compromised. Remember that the original test from the CDC was seriously deficient. The tests developed in response varied widely in their accuracy. The standards for screening and entering the data varied across the country. Medicare reimbursement for Covid-19 was higher than other rates, creating an incentive to come down on a Covid-19 diagnosis (I worked in hospital IT for over five years - I know the games that are played). The article at https://www.city-journal.org/deadly-cos ... n-policies , while from last year, illustrates that lockdowns have significant costs their proponents ignore or minimize.

Second, the politicization. The website C19hcq.com aggregates study results for hydroxychloroquine and other drugs used to treat Covid-19. HCQ clearly demonstrated efficacy, especially when combined with zinc and/or azithromycin. You used anecdotal evidence from your doctor (was he treating nursing home patients in New York City, by any chance?), so here's another one: https://kyma.com/news/2020/07/24/local- ... -cocktail/ . HCQ has proven effective if given early and in combination with the drugs mentioned above; the more the disease has progressed the less effective it is. But you wouldn't find that truth anywhere in the national media's "reporting". HCQ is just one example of the skewed coverage. Another is the scant coverage given to the disease' impact by age group.

So Brigit is correct when she said
It was an absolute disaster and a total failure for a supposedly literate and numerate country not to have demanded to know the fatality rate of this disease before allowing governments to assume emergency powers.
We were stampeded, "safetyism" became the order of the day, and certain governors wildly abused their powers. The chance of transmission of Covid-19 from pupil to teacher is vanishingly small, yet the teachers (unions) are still dragging their feet. One good thing about Covid-19: It exposed a lot of the supposed "good guys" as morally challenged.
Time is what prevents everything from happening all at once.

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JP Michael
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by JP Michael » Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:33 am

jackokie wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:40 pm "safetyism" became the order of the day
And now for the dumbest words ever uttered in the history of the world:
Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, et al wrote: The Covid-19 pandemic has been a stark and painful reminder that nobody is safe until everyone is safe.
World Pandemic Treaty

No agenda at work here. None whatsoever. Nope. (end sarcasm)

They can shove their 'safety' where Birkeland currents don't shine.

Lloyd
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Re: The Precautionary Principle

Unread post by Lloyd » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:17 pm

636

Too bad we can't combine the two threads to discuss the pandemic etc. Or maybe we can?

JacMac said:
So, if we use the same standards for assigning death to the Covid-19 as we do with Influenza then the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US have been ABOUT 15 times that of the Flu ( 30 x 15 = 450)
(We are over 550,000 deaths now but that has been more than one year. I don't have time to find the correct figure.)
Did the US government have a serious public discussion about the problem....NO.
Did the Flu cause many places to store dead bodies in refrigeration trucks because morticians could not keep up...NO
Did my primary care Dr. , who also works in a hospital ER, report that he was exhausted watching people die from Covid-19 every day....YES
1. WHERE OR HOW CAN WE GET ACCURATE DATA ON COVID DEATHS?
2. WHAT ARE THE DATA ON HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS FOR COVID?


JackOkie said:
Medicare reimbursement for Covid-19 was higher than other rates, creating an incentive to come down on a Covid-19 diagnosis
I hadn't heard about that game before. I've heard about some others.

3. LET'S GATHER A LIST OF ALL THE GAMES THE AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN PLAYING WITH THIS PANDEMIC, SHALL WE?

JP used sarcasm.

4. IS EMOTIONALISM APPROPRIATE IN SCIENTIFIC DISCUSSION? HOW SHOULD IT BE HANDLED SCIENTIFICALLY?

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