Scientists Are the New Witches: Italy Jails Six Seismologist

[kiwi]

Ultimately unfair as the seismologists involved would surely have been deprived of the EM elements we all know are involved in pre-cursor activity ... I hope Thunderbolts as a pro-body climb right up this

Italy, the country that earlier this year declared it a fineable offense to tell a man he has no balls, convicted seven seismologists of manslaughter on Monday, for failing to adequately assess the risk of a 2009 Earthquake that ended up killing 309 people.

The scientists were sentenced to six years in prison.

According to the BBC, prosecutors argued that the defendants "gave a falsely reassuring statement" before the 6.3 earthquake occurred on April 6, 2009. That statement came from a meeting held in the city of L'Aquila on March 31, in which the seismologists declared it "improbable" (though not impossible) that a major earthquake would strike the town.

The meeting was held in an effort to quell public panic inspired by a researcher from Italy's National Insitute of Nuclear Physics, who claimed to have deduced that a major earthquake would occur on March 29. (NewScientist reports that that man, Giampaolo Giuliani, "drove around the town with a megaphone encouraging people to evacuate.")

L'Aquila had been experiencing minor shocks for 6 months at the time of that announcement. However, as one geophycisist told the BBC, events like foreshocks and the release of fluids or gases don't provide detectable patterns that can be used to predict earthquakes.

In June 2010, more than 5,000 international scientists signed a letter to the Italian president calling the charges against the scientists "both unfair and naïve," as "there is no accepted scientific method for earth quake prediction." Those methods most commonly used are only able to forecast quake probability 10 or more years in advance.

At the trial, Italian authorities claimed that the men were convicted of manslaughter not for failing to predict the earthquake (which is impossible), but for inadequately interpreting the level of risk facing the city of L'Aquila (also pretty much impossible), and being "misleadingly reassuring" in their statement.

In the days immediately following the quake, the New York Times points out, most of the blame for the devastation was laid on lax (or unenforced) building codes, rather than charlatan scientists who failed to predict an event it is impossible to predict.

Italy, which has been Benjamin Button-ing itself ever since ushering in the Renaissance a few hundred years ago, is expected to lead a formal Crusade against science-talkers by the end of the century and discover science sometime around 2250.

The convicted men plan to appeal the decision.

http://gawker.com/5953871/scientists-ar ... earthquake




-----The sun "talks" to the Earth. One channel, still poorly understood, involves the ionosphere. The ionosphere interacts magnetically with the solid Earth, reaching deep into the crust, generating forces that can trigger earthquakes. Before major earthquakes, the crust "talks" back to the ionosphere, causing perturbations.-----

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ndj85uAHrPg

[dahlenaz]

Had these scientists been listening to the voices of people considering the historical record of
Venus' previous threatening events as it swept past the earth with its long cometary tails they
would have known to be on guard.

Predictions consistent with ancient patterns and observations presented in:
The Hypersensitive Solar System presentation at ICOPS 2006
http://para-az.com/The_Hypersensitive_S ... stem_d.pdf

would agree with the concerns expressed by the person behind the microphone.



Scientists should be held accountable for misdirecting people about earths'
historical evidence and disregarding patterns seen in observations which come
from outside their buddy-brigade.

Other examples of orbital factors in close timing with terrestrial events at:
http://para-az.com/hyprsnstv-solar-sys

d...z

[Osmosis]

Break out the Racks, Stakes and Dunking Stools----

Osmosis

[nick c]

These poor fellows are scapegoats.
This makes the Italian judicial system look real bad.

[kiwi]

sure it is Nick ....but not a great opportunity for the EU to chime in? ... extremely topical and making all the MSM outlets

[D_Archer]

This is great news. They should be tried for false statements.

Regards,
Daniel

[aetherwizard]

This is great news. They should be tried for false statements.

I fully agree. The article clearly pointed out the problem:

According to the BBC, prosecutors argued that the defendants "gave a falsely reassuring statement" before the 6.3 earthquake occurred on April 6, 2009. That statement came from a meeting held in the city of L'Aquila on March 31, in which the seismologists declared it "improbable" (though not impossible) that a major earthquake would strike the town.

There was evidence presented by another scientist that a major quake was pending. A group of "know it all" scientists got together and applied their own voodoo and incorrectly guessed there would not be an earthquake, thus losing an opportunity to prepare for an earthquake.

It is troubling how people who use probability statistics can pass their numerology off as science. It is as though casinos are the science capitals of the world.

The world is discrete, not probabilistic. There are specific physical processes occurring that lead from cause to effect. The scientist that was degraded by these six was applying scientific theories about discrete processes, whereas the six were acting like bookies and were playing the odds.

Yes, they deserve to be jailed and fined. All scientists who play dice with the lives of people should be jailed and fined. If we get rid of this "probabilistic" nonsense then real scientists will have a better chance at getting funding and having their work supported by the mainstream.

[nick c]

I agree with all of the above, except for the accusation that a crime has been commited.
These scientists are being used as scapegoats. There was no crime.
Given the present state of the art of seismology, that's right..."art", scientists cannot predict earthquakes. They deal in probabilities, that means their prognostications allow for anything to happen! Is that a secret? You have to be incredibly naive to think anything they say is intended to be a certainty.
This is a disgrace to the Italian legal system...a gut, let's find a scapegoat, reaction!

[Sparky]

A hysterical people, in a hysterical country and town, being stirred up by a hysterical man with a megaphone. Same thing happened here in the usa on 911! At a cost of trillions$ and many tens of thousands of lives.! And no one, in a position of authority and control over security, was held responsible!

How do you protect yourself from an earthquake? Lie on a mattress in and open field? Possibly a crack could open up and swallow you. Then who is at fault?

Their law enforcement and judicial systems are as corrupt and bungling as third world countries'. Examples of human nature, found everywhere.

[D_Archer]

I agree with all of the above, except for the accusation that a crime has been commited.
These scientists are being used as scapegoats. There was no crime.

I do not understand the sentiment that the "scientists" where used as scapegoats. It is true that some building contractors could also be held responsible. But the "scientists" issued a statement that no earthquake would happen, nothing probalistic, just that is was safe to stay. These "scientists" held public office! There a lot of people that wanted to flee but stayed because of the publicly made statement that all was safe. There is a direct correlation and in Italian law that is a crime. Maybe the press should study the law in Italy first before rallying behind the "scientists".

Regards,
Daniel

[nick c]

I do not understand the sentiment that the "scientists" where used as scapegoats..

Tectonics and Geology as fields of study make no claim to be able to "predict" earthquakes. This is not a secret. Like metereology the best that can be achieved is a probability estimate. This is not a secret. Anyone who has taken middle school level science should know this.

But the "scientists" issued a statement that no earthquake would happen, nothing probalistic, just that is was safe to stay.

I do not know if that is true. If so they were going beyond the predictive abilities of their field of study. If anyone, an economist, a weather man...or a geologist tells me anything is a certainty (ie 100% probability) then I am an idiot for believing them. It is still not criminal, just incompetance in the field. That should be obvious.

These "scientists" held public office! There a lot of people that wanted to flee but stayed because of the publicly made statement that all was safe. There is a direct correlation and in Italian law that is a crime. Maybe the press should study the law in Italy first before rallying behind the "scientists".

If anything this is an indictment of the Italian system. Were these scientists elected to public office? Perhaps we can have elections where we elect our geologists according to the promises made. The one that claims, "there will be no earthquakes if you vote for me!" gets elected. Or perhaps they were appointed.
Again, the fact remains that it is common knowledge that earthquake prediction in the science of Geology, at the present time and forseeable future, can only be made as probabilities. These scientists may have been incompetent, of that I do not know, but they are not criminals. They are scapegoats. When there is any natural disaster it is human nature to find someone to blame. If I am a politician it is imperative that I blame someone, because if I don't, then everyone may put it on me!