Julian Braggins wrote:With reference to the quotes from the book posted by PP,
We all tend to find results from papers that support our present position, and with that in mind, here are a few points that cast doubt on the man made catastrophic global warming camp.
The surface stations world wide are in the main situated to cater for airports, and as such show greatly increased heat island effect compared to rural stations, which is not correctly compensated for. Wattsupwiththat has run many articles on that.
Surface stations world wide have been reduced from ~9000 pre 1990 to ~2000 at present, most of the dropped ones are from colder regions in Siberia and internal Canada, some are extrapolated from stations up to 2000km away.
Over the century plus time period instruments, siting, time of observation, methods of sea surface temperature sampling have all changed drastically and there is great disagreement between experts as to whether it is even possible to correct for these problems. Even the method to compensate for Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect have resulted in a positive slope for the last Century where none existed in the raw figures, for example raw figures for Australia show no trend, UHI adjusted +.7°C Warwick Hughes has many posts on this. Also New Zealand, in fact the authority in control of the temperature series has wiped its hands of them as they have been compromised by a now dismissed senior civil servant.
There is also the realization that average global temperature is not the appropriate metric to measure the heat content of the Globe. Humidity has a great influence on atmospheric heat content and varies widely and rapidly in ways that cannot be tracked at present. It is the heat content balance that determines whether we are warming or cooling. The Oceanic Cycles have periods up to 60years or more, and the oceans contain in the top 200mtrs something in the region of 80 times the heat content of the atmosphere, therefore a fraction of a degree in 110 yrs (where the error bars should be greater than that) seems neither here nor there.
Sensitivity to CO2 is a very controversial subject because without a positive feedback, there is no catastrophic warming. Ferenc Miscolski worked for NASA on this for many years and published a paper that in essence finds that there is NO overall effect by CO2, because as the fraction of CO2 in the air rises a similar fraction of water vapour is displaced resulting in an opacity to Infra Red that remains constant. This of course is highly disputed by those supporting the IPPC contention of positive feedback, but their only opposition boils down to disputing the accuracy of pre NASA balloon measurements going back some 60 years.
Well credentialed climatologists put the sensitivity of CO2 doubling at figures from + 0.4°C to +1.2°C using different measures. Present figures show that the temperature is well below the scenarios modeled by the IPPC.
Laboratory experiments with CO2 do not in any way represent the open ended column that represents the atmosphere with all its dynamics.
There is a new paper that may be very significant that shows that carbonic acid gas can exist at temperatures below -31°C , may be forming in the upper atmosphere and would take out some CO2. Its properties as a GH Gas are unknown but theoretically should not be great.
The Naomi Oreskes controversy was settled years ago, she used a limiting search criteria and missed hundreds of papers that did not agree with her conclusions.
The Solar content of GW is still disputed, increased cloud cover from cosmic rays is still awaiting results from experiment. NASA has stated that extreme ultra violet can increase from 100 to 1000 fold at various stages of the solar cycle and its effects on temperature are not measured.
The sunspot number and its proxies go back thousands of years, and though the mechanism is not yet known, periods of sustained low sunspot activity have always resulted in times of cold and famine. We are at present tracking the sunspot activity of the Dalton minimum which resulted in the Little Ice Age. The Barycentre Orbit pattern which has coincided with previous cold periods shows a coming low sunspot number for cycle 25 which takes us to the 2030’s see Vuckevic, Theodore Landsheidt
Take a look at that graph. Think about it, while I address your points.
You talk about urban heat-island effects skewing temperature data. Yet, that doesn't change anything at all - as summarised simply here:-
"
Microsite influences on temperature changes are minimal; good and bad sites show the same trend."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/microsi ... rature.htm
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushc ... al2010.pdf (A paper citing the research).
Regarding your claims about humidity, I suggest you take this into account:-
"An analysis of long-term measurements of upper tropospheric water vapor shows a positive water vapor feedback in 22 years of satellite data (Soden et al 2005). In addition, analysis of long-term paleoclimate records is also inconsistent with a negative long-term water vapor feedback (Köhler et al 2010)."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/humidit ... arming.htm
As you can see - water-vapour increase from warming (via CO2 forcing) has strong tendency towards amplifying positive feedbacks. Of course, you can choose to ignore it and make claims that go against the empirical data. But you'd look very discredited.
You mention the ocean upper-heating and assume that the greater maritime heating-capacity (compared to land) somehow renders the atmospheric temperature anamoly trivial. You talk about a fraction of a degree global average temperature over 100 years as if that is trivial in the historical context. It most certainly is NOT trivial. Also, while the warming over land is clearly greater - the impacts on the ocean requires an understanding of the gyre-system of ocean currents, how this interacts with the cellullar/gyre system in the atmosphere, etc. Larger warming towards the poles (known as Arctic Amplification from imbalances in poleward flows, albedo-loss, etc) interacts with other feedback mechanisms to produce ice-melt and sea-level rise. Another problem with increased CO2 in the atmosphere, is the absorption by oceans which results in greater acidity and this in turn has numerous negative impacts. A good discussion on the oceanic implications of climate change was discussed a few weeks back on NPR (I'm not endorsing that website, but it just happened to be a good discussion among ocean scientists):-
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/21/133117332 ... t=1&f=1025
You claim that rebuttal's to Ferenc Miscolski boil down to pre-NASA balloon measurements. But that is a dishonest claim, as this critique reveals:-
http://www.realclimate.org/wiki/index.p ... _Miskolczi
Miscolski lacks empirical support for his claims. He is also mistaken about radiative balance and gas-flux in the troposphere.
You claim that "Well credentialed climatologists put the sensitivity of CO2 doubling at figures from + 0.4°C to +1.2°C using different measures". However, you ignored what I posted (hand-typed actually) from Nafeez Ahmed's book regarding the actual range of agreement for temp increases via CO2 doubling.
The "Naomi Oreskes controversy" only exists in the minds of people who deem it such. The empirical findings warrant serious attention; rather than blatant dismissal.
As for solar dynamics and cosmic rays. Please read earlier pages of this thread - I mentioned several studies that talk about their influence.