Mathematical formulas and the economic collapse

Has science taken a wrong turn? If so, what corrections are needed? Chronicles of scientific misbehavior. The role of heretic-pioneers and forbidden questions in the sciences. Is peer review working? The perverse "consensus of leading scientists." Good public relations versus good science.

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MrAmsterdam
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Mathematical formulas and the economic collapse

Post by MrAmsterdam » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:11 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_X._Li

is a quantitative analyst and a qualified actuary who in the early 2000s pioneered the use of Gaussian copula models for the pricing of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). The Financial Times called him "the world’s most influential actuary,"while in the aftermath of the Global financial crisis of 2008–2009, to which Li's model has been credited partly to blame, his model has been called a "recipe for disaster"
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Li himself apparently understood the fallacy of his model, in 2005 saying "Very few people understand the essence of the model." Li also wrote that "The current copula framework gains its popularity owing to its simplicity....However, there is little theoretical justification of the current framework from financial economics....We essentially have a credit portfolio model without solid credit portfolio theory." Kai Gilkes of CreditSights says "Li can't be blamed", although he invented the model, it was the bankers who misinterpreted and misused it.
Social believe systems and mathematical formulas go happy hand in hand...and it will sometimes lead to an enormous economic world crises...

Can the same be said about "wrong" mathematical descriptions of astronomical phenomena?
Today's scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality. -Nikola Tesla -1934

mague
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Re: Mathematical formulas and the economic collapse

Post by mague » Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:55 am

Tower of Babel again :)

Once people recognize that money is a medium of exchange and nothing else all math. formulas are useless. They have been developed to maintain groth (or maybe status quo), not to exchange goods. It seems those are all remnants of the 1st towers breakdown. People say A and think B.

Same for science and all other disciplines. Intelligence is not mass and power of brain/computing and not based on DNA but the simple ability to differentiate. Boils all down to the good old purity of heart and mind ;)

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phyllotaxis
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Re: Mathematical formulas and the economic collapse

Post by phyllotaxis » Mon Jun 25, 2012 7:07 pm

I think this will help explain Mathematics Versus Economic Logic

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tayga
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Re: Mathematical formulas and the economic collapse

Post by tayga » Thu Jun 28, 2012 11:47 am

Economics is a set of ideals masquerading as a science. Economists apparently think that infinite growth is possible in a closed system. Thermodynamicists know that it isn't.

Even rock stars know it isn't ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqFZGnfMLMw
tayga


It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.

- Richard P. Feynman

Normal science does not aim at novelties of fact or theory and, when successful, finds none.
- Thomas Kuhn

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