Thought I should up date you on how the 2010 hurricane season is going so far, compared to a forecast I posted;
Sunday, August 15, 2010
2010 detailed Hurricane forecast
Current mood: adventurous
Today I climbed out on a big limb, with chainsaw in tow, with this forecast?
There are four ingredients needed to make a large storm, available heat energy, moisture to change phase states to generate the low pressure zone, ion potentials to drive the “precipitation” (not just condensation), and a global lunar tidal effect to drive the wind patterns that tighten up, as the tropical air mass that becomes the tropical storm, moves off of the ITCZ and further away from the equator, the Coriolis effect kicks in and strengthens, to assist the formation of the cyclonic circulation along with the associated ionic drives
We have been having three of these ingredients showing up in the three named disturbances so far. However the global “pole to equator ion charge gradient” is currently stagnating, all of the seasonal drivers of these shifts in charge gradients will occur later in the year than is the”Normal” (although nonrandom pattern of distribution.)
The solar cycle has been slow, but is starting to pick up as we approach the heliocentric conjunctions of three of the four outer planets that drive the global ion potentials that create and drive these large storms. I have posted a detailed forecast of the dates to expect these storms to be produced several time over the past year.
Due to the geomagnetic effects of the increased coupling, of the solar fields extended out from flares and coronal holes, as the Earth passes through the focused area that lines up heliocentrically with the outer planets:
Neptune on the 20th of August, the Earth will have an increased homopolar generator charge potential inducted into it, then relaxed over the next two weeks (till end of August 2010) that will induce the typical discharge pattern that generates the large flows of ions that allow the global tropical storms to attain sizable effects above cat 1 – cat 2 levels, because of increased wind and precipitation production, powered by the enhanced action of the opposing ion charges swept into the cyclonic flow structure.
September 21st through 24th 2010 will see the bigger set of conjunctions that will do a much better job of driving the intensity of resultant global tropical and extra-tropical storms, that form on the discharge side of the ion flux patterns, after these dates. No the season is not over yet.
The lunar declinational tides that peak at the culmination of the declinational sweep occur at Maximum South on 19th August then heads North with tropical moisture in tow until the effects has run its course by the 2nd to 4th of September 2010, is the window of opportunity for the first weaker outbreak of global TS.
The lunar declination is Maximum South again on the 15th of September 2010, ahead of the peak of charging of the Uranus / Jupiter heliocentric conjunction of the 24th of September 2010, and it should be in phase with the movement of tropical moisture laden warm air crossing the equator following the moon, as it moves North across the equator on the 23rd of September.
The same day of the peak charging effects of the homopolar generator as the Earth responds to the increased inductive effects carried on the solar wind to affect the coupling through to the outer planets from the sun out of a large coronal hole created on the sun just for the purpose of providing the magnetic field energy needed. This powers up the cycle of positive ion charging along the ITCZ, by pushing more moisture into the lower atmosphere, to then add drive to the ion discharging phase, driving the resultant outbreak of global wide intense tropical storms, that will occur post conjunction.
By the time the Moon reaches maximum North declination on the 29th of September 2010, the global ACE values will be close to peak for the year. Inertial momentum of the global systems should carry on the enhanced zonal flow through the next two weeks.
With the continual decreasing electromagnetic coupling as the Earth moves past these outer planets the severe weather activity levels, will drop with continued attempted recovery enhancements at the lunar declinational culminations, until by the time of the synod conjunction of Venus and Earth on the 29th of October 2010, we will see a last hurrah, then a slow shift into the storms of a deep cold NH winter.
Read more:
http://www.myspace.com/aerology/blog#ixzz0ys5MSlHf
So far we have had the slow start of the Bonnie Colin and resultant low intensity, prior to the Neptune / Earth synod conjunction, then the rapid uptick in activity with Danielle, and Earl both at least cat 4 systems. Then as Mercury passed the earth on the 3rd of September, and the moon was maximum North declination ~24 degrees, on the 4th, the combined decoupling of discharge patterns back to recharge, went back to weak disorganized almost storms Fiona just dried up after the 3rd, and Gaston has been down in the low% probability catagory below TS ratings.
In an unrelated (at present mainstream thought) event there was a 7.0 Quake in New Zealand, with in two hours of the peak conjunction of Mercury / Earth, Then 4 days later when Mercury was most inline with the close positions of Jupiter and Uranus, Mount Sinabung starting going active again. When nature hits the "resume speed" button on the TS cruise control on the 21st of September, be ready for a sudden return to "full on" hurricane season again.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/20...volcano- ... indonesia/ Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra had been inactive for more than 400 years. It had been classified as inactive by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation.
My research is still available @
http://research.aerology.com/aerology-a ... ng-method/
and I will be updating a section on hurricane forecasting based on what I learn from this season's multiple synod conjunctions to gather data on solar wind speeds and effects, CME production and storm intensity related to lunar declination and planetary interactions, by plotting multiple years of daily TS ACE values, with references to the above effects.
