Big drop in solar activity could mean much cooler Earth

[earls]

http://www.networkworld.com/community/b ... much-coole

"This is highly unusual and unexpected,"

The price of hydrogen fuel must have gone up and the Sun is cutting back. Either way, let me diagnose the Sun's gravity waves and see what's going on. Collapse may be imminent.

[PersianPaladin]

I'm not really sure that they even know what they're talking about.

[davesmith_au]

For a much better commentary on the issue, take a look at tallbloke's blog.

Theodore Landscheidt is the scientist whose work my brother Carl took over when Theo passed away, and Theo was predicting this (significantly cooler period) well over a decade ago. Now Carl is gone too, but the work still continues with Geoff Sharp at the helm.

Cheers, Dave.

[moses]

http://www.landscheidt.info/
I tell you what Dave, that graph of temperature seems to tell a couple of stories. It seems to me to suggest that the Earth was cooling long term from 900AD to about 1750AD, and one wonders why. Perhaps the graph tells of warming from 1800 to 2000, and one wonders whether the cooling trend would have continued if not for soot/CO2. From an Electrical Solar System point of view, the long term trends could be very much dependent on the Birkeland Currents feeding the Solar System and also the general environment around the heliosphere.

But to me there is no denying the effects of angular momentum.
Mo

[eclipse]

Dave: tallbloke here. Thanks for linking my blog. Carl's work will get the recognition it deserves one day.
Keep up the good work

Rog

[davesmith_au]

Dave: tallbloke here. Thanks for linking my blog.

No worries, it's the least I could do. I like linking to the good guys of the world...

Carl's work will get the recognition it deserves one day.

I'm just happy Geoff and others know of his contribution and are continuing to push the barrow.

Keep up the good work

Rog

Right back at ya, Roger!

Cheers, Dave.

[PersianPaladin]

http://www.landscheidt.info/
I tell you what Dave, that graph of temperature seems to tell a couple of stories. It seems to me to suggest that the Earth was cooling long term from 900AD to about 1750AD, and one wonders why. Perhaps the graph tells of warming from 1800 to 2000, and one wonders whether the cooling trend would have continued if not for soot/CO2. From an Electrical Solar System point of view, the long term trends could be very much dependent on the Birkeland Currents feeding the Solar System and also the general environment around the heliosphere.

But to me there is no denying the effects of angular momentum.
Mo

That's the thing. We can't really hold much confidence in these future predictions because it may well be just a small perturbation in the convergent flows around the solar circuit.

Do we have special crafts that can venture close enough with Langmuir probes? No.

Still....there may be something to his predictions that maybe I'm missing. Albeit I think ultimately, the sun will always throw us off the trail if the galactic-environment chooses to change the frequency of its current cycles. Take the recent prolonged quiescence as a small warning...

[PersianPaladin]

Researchers who have predicted a long term solar minimum or ‘solar hibernation’ and/or a new climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity.

1. Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”

2. David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia).
From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”

3. Dr. O.G.Badalyan, and Dr.V.N. Obridko, Institute of Terrestrial Magnestism. Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)

4. Dr. B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”

5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, http://www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report:
“ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”

6. Dr. Peter Harris. Engineer, retired, Queensland, Australia.
From his analysis of glacial and interglacial cycles he concludes: “…we can say there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.”

7. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera. Researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
His comments from his research released in August 2008: “…in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts for 60-80 years.”

8. Dr’s. Y.T.Hong, H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P.Zhou, J.Beer, H.D. Li, X.T.Leng, B.Hong, and X.G. Qin.
From their paper: Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6,000-year (isotope) O18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10.1 (2000) pp. 1-7.
The Chinese team of researchers observed “…a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes.”
In showing O18 isotope measurements were high during the coldest periods they concluded, “If the trend after AD 1950 continues…the next maximum of the peat O18 (and therefore cold maximum) would be expected between about AD 2000 and AD 2050.”

9. Dr. Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of
Astronomy, and Dr. Vladimir Kaftan: Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Moscow.
From their paper: Komitov, B., and V. Kaftan, (2004), The sunspot activity in the last two millennia on the basis of indirect and instrumented indexes: time series models and their extrapolations for the 21st century, paper presented at the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 223.
Comment from paper: “It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades….It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”

10. Dr. Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada)
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include: “Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”

11. Dr. Ernest Njau: University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
From his paper: Njau, E., (2005), Expected halt in current global warming trend?, Renewable Energy, Vol.30, Issue 5, pp.743-752.
Comment from paper: “… the mean ‘global temperature variations reaches the next peak about 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally it is shown that…Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.”

12. Dr. Tim Patterson: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton Univ., Can.
From an article in the Calgary Times: May 18, 2007. Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 – the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer. Patterson: “This should be a great strategic concern in Canada because nobody is farming north of us.” In other words, Canada – the great breadbasket of the world - just might not be able to grow grains in much of the prairies.

13.Dr’s. Ken K. Schatten and W.K.Tobiska.
From their paper presented at the 34th Solar Physics Division meeting of the American Astronomical Society, June 2003:
“The surprising result of these long range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”

14. Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin. Merited Scientist of Russia and Fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and researcher at the Oceanology Institute.
From recent news articles, regarding the next climate change he has said: “Astrophysics know two solar cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of irradiating solar surface….Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041,and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”

15. Dr’s. Ian Wilson, Bob Carter, and I.A. Waite.
From their paper: Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 June 2008).
Dr. Wilson adds the following clarification:
“It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20-30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1-2 C.”

16. Dr’s. Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. Nanjing Normal University, China
From their paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,115-121: Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.
“… we believe global climate changes will be in a trend of falling in the following 20 years.”


A lot of people putting their reputations on the line

[neilwilkes]

And the thing that really, truly worries me about this research is that I will wager - right here, right now - that the IPCC mob and their disciples (for a religion it is) will claim it is their measures that have done this, and the best solution is to ramp up the "green taxes".
Big Business will be allowed to pollute away as usual, and the little guy will foot the bill.
Trebles all round.

[mharratsc]

I'm just astounded that - with that many scientists all in agreement (for the most part at least) - that more of this information hasn't hit mainstream news yet.

I'm not a conspiracy buff, but stuff like this really does make one wonder, doesn't it?

[PersianPaladin]

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110614/ts_afp/usspacesun


The bit I've highlighted in bold is worth noting. I'm somewhat skeptical about the predictions and some of the claims about strongly-cooling climatic impacts, especially when there is a POSSIBILITY of a return to stronger maxima in Cycle 25 - which could start in 2021.


Also..an interesting take from the Sydney Morning Herald:-

That minimum coincided with the ''Little Ice Age'', in which temperatures were unusually low in Europe and elsewhere around the globe, and some researchers suggest that the two events were cause and effect - although evidence of that linkage is extremely limited.

Other than any potential climatic impact, the effects of reduced sunspots would have little direct impact on humans. Most of the terrestrial effects linked to sunspot activity - including interference with telecommunications, adverse effects on power transmission, reduced lifetimes of satellites and other problems - occur when sunspot activity increases.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/clima ... 1g417.html

A 70 year period of the "mini Ice-Age" may have been correllated, but correllation does not neccessarily equate to causation.

[Julian Braggins]

Not surprisingly the Sydney Morning Herald puts up two strawman arguments and then demolishes them.

Several of the papers you listed rely on correlations going back millenia, one such may be coincidence, many, going back thousands of years, I don't think so.

Increased solar activity of the 20th C must have had a cumulative effect on Ocean Heat Content over that period, even if it only had a variation of .1 °C in atmospheric temps for each cycle, without that , and with the Svensmark effect, the predictions of the 12 papers could well take effect.

[Julian Braggins]

To back up my last surmise, I just found this ref on Jennifer Marohasy's blog,

doi:10.1029/2007JA012989

Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing

Nir J. Shaviv

Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Giv'at Ram, Jerusalem, Israel

"Over the 11-year solar cycle, small changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) give rise to small variations in the global energy budget. It was suggested, however, that different mechanisms could amplify solar activity variations to give large climatic effects, a possibility which is still a subject of debate. With this in mind, we use the oceans as a calorimeter to measure the radiative forcing variations associated with the solar cycle. This is achieved through the study of three independent records, the net heat flux into the oceans over 5 decades, the sea-level change rate based on tide gauge records over the 20th century, and the sea-surface temperature variations. Each of the records can be used to consistently derive the same oceanic heat flux. We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanism, although without pointing to which one."

This would imply .5 to .7 °C heating during the 20th Century which is in the process of being lost

[Moby]

Dear Julian

There could be an amplification mechanism, OR an attenuation mechanism.

For example, if the data regarding the oceanic heat flux was flawed because it does not consider in detail the effects of increasing the volumes of water in the hydrological cycle that simply do not necessarily affect the overall oceanic volumes. Look at studies regarding Pan Evaporation Rates (PER's), they are all over the place. Look at volumes of meltwater from the poles, and look at the expected catastrophic predictions regarding Deep Oceanic Currents like the Gulf Stream. Are all of these effects modelled in detail in the heat calculations? Has anyone observed the wrong kind of rain, and the wrong kind of clouds that envelop the earth nowadays?

Then consider the so-called newly discovered localized geomagnetic shielding effects in certain regions of the globe; for example the 10-200 year geomagnetic cycle believed to be a significant factor in modulating the climate of Northern Europe. Changes in the Earth's magnetism directly effects the radiation shielding. There are simply no detailed predictions regarding the next North-South magnetic flip. If we are approaching such a flip, what will it's manifestations be?

And finally, the physicist's favourite, spin-orbit coupling. What about the effect of the position of our solar system in the galaxy, affecting the Sun itself via gravitational potential? Relatively unknown. If the earth is like an electron orbiting a nucleus, does gravitational potential affect the Sun via the Earth?

Anything could happen. And it probably will.

Moby

[johnm33]

I'm not familiar with the references above but will make sure I check them all out , Piers Corbin who sells weather reports months in advance based on[his] predictions of solar activity has similarly predicted a quiet sun and global cooling, for the last few years, If I remember correctly back as far as 1997. If we have indeed had that it doesn't show up in the arctic where there seems to be an ongoing loss of ice and general warming over the last decade, and since the whole point of weather is to equalize energetic potential, if the pole is warming the earth is warming,it is!
..
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/08/ ... -2011.html
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http://www.skepticalscience.com/Various ... -loss.html
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With things stacked up as they are in the western/atlantic weather systems I'd be suprised, and relieved, not to see something quite spectacular unfold in the next four weeks. Bearing in mind that to melt ice you need as much energy as you do to raise the temperature of the same volume of water by 80oc that means a prodigious amount of energy is currently being dumped/absorbed at the poles with ever less ice to 'soak' it up. With the loss of ice the arctic transforms from what is effectively a continental sized arid heat dump[to space] to a temperate oceanic radiator which will reconfigure every weather system between it and the tropics. I personally think this means the potential for huge dumps of snow principally over north west europe and the USA from the great lakes -west to the rockies-and all the way down to texas.
On another tack the little ice age also coincided with the demise of the huge populations of agricultural amerindians. In north america it was common for 95% population loss when an epidemic took hold, leaving only the most robust youth, thus total loss of culture. Estimates of the population of the amazon basin range to 65million who similarly disappeared when european and african diseases arrived. Having disappeared these populations were rapidly replaced with 'virgin' forest. I imagine something similar took place in central america and southern south america too. Not dissimilar to the effects of the black death in eurasia, here in the uk there was such a shortage of labour that the 'lords' were poaching each others 'serfs' so it was decided that society[lords] should own us[serfs] in common and we became commoners.