Explaining Planetary Alignments cause of Sunspot Cycle

[RayTomes]

...

This is similar to my (lost due to disk drive crash) calculations based on historic cycles. They showed:
~54 year cycle maxima about 1998, minima 2025, maxima 2052
~208 year cycle maxima about 2000, minima about 2100
~2300 year cycle, minima ~1650, maxima not until 2800.
So my prediction was for slight downward until 2025, then slight upward to 2052 and so on with big increase starting around 2100.

There is this graph you produced still on BAUT
http://ray.tomes.biz/global-temp-cycles-human.png

It really brasssed off some BAUTers.

I forgot about that study. The problem was that the data was too short a period to get the 200 year cycle accurate. I now have 2000 years of data that allows the phase to be accurately determined. It did indeed peak around the 1990s.

Some of those guys in BAUT are so funny. One declaring that no such cycles have ever been found. The ~208 year cycle is so popular that it has two different names, de Vries and S...(I forget). It is found in climate and solar proxies. If you don't get them upset, you aren't telling them the full truth.

Recently I asked the owner of BAUT to review my banning. He replied that I had been warned many times and not changed my behaviour. Well, most of my posts were in the against the mainstream thread anyway. And I was very seldom rude to anyone (although the reverse was not true and none of them ever got warned). So, if they want a closed shop and to pretend that they know everything, so be it. They were really looking hard for an excuse for banning me. There are better places to have discussions, like here.

[eclipse]

I've decided to steer clear of climate related threads on BAUT for the reasons you state. I do occasionally find it useful as a place to ask technical astronomy and physics questions, so I want to avoid your fate if I can. I did write to the BAUT mods myself asking if you might be unbanned given that your main antagonist had left anyway. I got a short and rather terse reply.

The Mars cycles you pointed up are fascinating, and provide nice confirmation of extra-terrestrial effects on individual planets' orbital parameters coinciding. If these long term alterations are linked to Jupiter-Neptune angular momentum exchanges (for example), Then the consequent effects on JEV sysurgies will affect sunspot production too, and hence long term climatic changes such as ice ages on Earth. Maybe we have a clue here regarding the shift from 41kyr to 100kyr glaciation cycles.

[junglelord]

BAUT IS FOR MORONS.

[RayTomes]

BAUT IS FOR MORONS.

One real benefit I got from posting on BAUT was that I got the establishment reactionists statements on things that I couldn't normally get. It gave an insight into their rigid thinking and where they built their impenetrable brick walls that allow no new information in. It turns out that it is a lot further back than I thought.

The most amazing thing that I learned there (I had to check this out by posting questions to usenet sci.physics.research) is that many physicists think that GR is not wave equations (they are the certainly ignorant if not actually MORONS), or that large scale gravitational waves cannot exist. The fact (as far as I can tell) is that while some acknowledge the wave nature, no-one has a clue how to solve large scale wave structures in GR. And they think they understand how the Universe works!

[eclipse]

And your graph also shows a third component ... is that temperature?
...
I still probably haven't answered your question about 30 years. I will keep thinking about it, maybe an answer will come.

Sorry, missed this:

Yes, it's sea surface temperature from HADCRU. I detrended it in a fairly arbitrary way just to see what would happen.

Please do keep thinking about the broken time arrow on the planetary motion vs solar activity graph. It may just be a spurious correlation, but my intuition says otherwise. I just get the odd feeling I'm missing something obvious about interpretation, but can't work out what...

[Gray]

Hi Ray

Very interesting thread particularly the Jupiter/other planet timings. I've been working on this subject. You might like to take a look at:
http://www.jupitersdance.com/thefinalwaltz/

[RayTomes]

Very interesting thread particularly the Jupiter/other planet timings. I've been working on this subject. You might like to take a look at:
http://www.jupitersdance.com/thefinalwaltz/

Hi Gray

A nice set of diagrams giving a good idea of the "dance". You might also be interested in the work of Vladimir Ladma which is a very comprehensive study of the various resonances and such of planetary orbits. It doesn't have a lot of explanation, but does identify many types of resonance:
[url]http://vladimir_ladma.sweb.cz/english/cycles/cycles.htm[/url]

Regards
Ray

[junglelord]

http://www.jupitersdance.com/thefinalwaltz/
thanks for this....I was wanting that.

[RayTomes]

Gray, further to my last post, I want to mention that there is a way to calculate long term average interactions of planets (the periods are in the ref I gave but not the explanation). It starts from taking the frequencies of planetary orbits (i.e. the inverse of periods). The simply looking for near ratios and removing them. Example for J-S say:
periods: Jupiter 11.8622 years, Saturn 29.457 years
frequencies: J 0.084301/y, S 0.033948/y
Interactions happen on various combinations of frequency difference,
e.g. J-S = 0.050353/y ==> period 19.8598 years which is J-S lap
and J-2*S = 0.016405/y ==> period 60.957 years which is average period after which they meet in same part of sky
(note typical period is ~59 years though)
near commensurability 2*J - 5*S = -0.001138 ==> 879 years super cycle.
This last one causes the longitude of the outer planets to move about by several degrees.

In your figures you have a number that are scattered around 2300 and 4600 years, which are well known long term cycles in planets, sun and climate. To get the long term average of these cycles use frequencies in the above way. I think (from memory) that the 2300 year cycle comes about from J-3*S+N+U which gives something like 2317 year period.

The thing is to look for ways to make the smallest frequencies by differences of the planet frequencies with small multipliers.

Regards, Ray

[seasmith]

e.g. J-S = 0.050353/y ==> period 19.8598 years which is J-S lap
and J-2*S = 0.016405/y ==> period 60.957 years which is average period after which they meet in same part of sky
(note typical period is ~59 years though)
near commensurability 2*J - 5*S = -0.001138 ==> 879 years super cycle.

Ray,

Please pardon a trivial arithmetic question but, in your example, why did you pick 2*J and 5*S ?
879 years is about 14.5 J*S conjunctions.
What is the 0.001138 figure commensurate with ?

Thank you,
s

[RayTomes]

e.g. J-S = 0.050353/y ==> period 19.8598 years which is J-S lap
and J-2*S = 0.016405/y ==> period 60.957 years which is average period after which they meet in same part of sky
(note typical period is ~59 years though)
near commensurability 2*J - 5*S = -0.001138 ==> 879 years super cycle.

Please pardon a trivial arithmetic question but, in your example, why did you pick 2*J and 5*S ?
879 years is about 14.5 J*S conjunctions.
What is the 0.001138 figure commensurate with ?

I picked 2 and 5 because J and S have a near 2:5 ratio in periods. The whole idea is to try to make smaller and smaller frequencies (longer and longer period resonances).

J and S are the frequencies of orbiting of the 2 planets Jupiter and Saturn. The units are 1/years. Therefore 2*J-5*S is 0.001138/years which is 1/879 years meaning a period of 879 years.

Explained in words this means that the 2:5 resonance of J and S which has a period of about 59 years rotates slowly in the sky (it is a 3 spoked arrangement as you know) to return to the original place in an average of 879 years. The individual nearest returns will not be 879 years but multiples of 19.86 years.

[eclipse]

Another nice synchronicity. Paul Vaughan posted a similar calculation on my blog last night:

1) The shorter cycle:

The harmonic of S nearest J:
29.47303787 / 3 = 9.824345955

The beat with J:
(11.86630899)*(9.824345955) / (11.86630899 – 9.824345955) = 57.0914962

2) The longer cycle:

5J ~= 2S so J/2 ~= S/5

11.86630899 / 2 = 5.933154494
29.47303787 / 5 = 5.894607573

The beat:
(5.933154494)*(5.894607573) / (5.933154494 – 5.894607573) = 907.2999052

[RayTomes]

Planets frequencies (per tropical year)

Me 4.1519300472
Ve 1.6254601555
Ea 0.9999612064
Ma 0.5316638266
Ju 0.0842966434
Sa 0.0339580165
Ur 0.0119021207
Ne 0.0060681513
Pl 0.0040334625

Using these actually gives 835.56 years for 2*J-5*S

[mague]

I have a few rather simple questions.

Do sunspots and those hills really move with the rotation or rather follow the movement of their cause ?

Wouldnt it be interesting to count time not in Gregorian years but in moon cycles ? I mean he is the closest and easiest observable cycle around. Its not like it matters, still it may help to find patterns in the white noise of cycles ?!

[RayTomes]

I have a few rather simple questions.

Do sunspots and those hills really move with the rotation or rather follow the movement of their cause ?

Wouldnt it be interesting to count time not in Gregorian years but in moon cycles ? I mean he is the closest and easiest observable cycle around. Its not like it matters, still it may help to find patterns in the white noise of cycles ?!

Hi Mague

If matter moves outward from the core of the Sun then it sill slow rotation, if it moves inward it will speed it up. Same as the ballerina moving arms in and out.

The rotation of the Sun is variable over time, also being generally faster at the equator and slower at the poles, and faster still nearer the core. The inside is studied by sound waves bouncing around inside that also show up as pulsating hills in checkerboard patterns with vibration periods of about 5 minutes.

Many calendars use both years and true lunar months (e.g. Chinese and Jewish). To do that you must have 13 months in some years. Lunar cycles are more variable than years though. Time calculations are very complicated, and now we even have leap seconds. Or did they scrap those?