Clearly
some variation in Neptune’s spectrum is required to explain
the near-IR results discussed in the previous paragraph.
However, it does not seem likely that the effect at short
wavelengths could be large enough by itself to explain the
entire discrepancy. Another potential source for unusual
brightness changes is the heightened solar activity near the
end of 1957 when the largest-ever monthly mean sunspot
number was observed (sunspot data from
ftp://ftp.ngdc.
noaa.gov). Sunspot number was anticorrelated with Neptune’s
brightness during the 1972–1980 period when it
seemed to be associated with 2–3% variations in brightness
(Lockwood and Thompson, 1986). But during 1950–1961,
the B-filter observations of a steadily increasing brightness
contain no evidence of a 1957 minimum that would have
been obvious had the same correlation been present then as
during 1972–1980. Thus, the B observations during 1950–
1960 seem inconsistent with both seasonal and solar responses.
An alternate possibility is that these earlier broadband
measurements are in error, either due to instrumental
anomalies or analysis errors. In fact, Jerzykiewicz and
Serkowski (1966) themselves raise this issue by pointing
out that “The steady decrease of the instrumental coefficient
A8 in the years 1950–1960 . . . throws some doubt on the
reality of the changes in Neptune’s brightness.” A clear
resolution of this discrepancy remains to be found.
It should be noted that the discrepancies between the
seasonal model and the observations are mainly with observations
that are minor in effect or made in different spectral
bands and that very good agreement is obtained with the
best-calibrated and most spectrally homogeneous diskaveraged
observations. Thus, seasonal forcing remains a
plausible explanation for Neptune’s main brightness variation,
although a firm understanding of the complete variation and
all its contributing factors and spectral variation remains to
be established. Achieving that understanding will probably
require a much longer record of observations and more
detailed investigations of physical mechanisms. If the seasonal
model is correct, Neptune should continue to brighten
at 467 nm for almost another two decades.