Here you will find a new theory with which you can calculate sunspot cycles.

It was developed by a Belgium scientist.

I can not attach the excell file because it does not accept an xls extension.

Just email me and I will send you the excel file.

Email:

buscame77@yahoo.comSubject: Excel File

Summary of the model. It explains:

1) Long and short sunspot cycles

2) Very low sunspot activity.

3) Why there is a difference between the sunspot numbers South and North of the equator (slightly different speed Southern and Northern polar field)

4) Why there is very low sunspot activity South or North of the equator, while there is sunspot activity in the opposite place!

5) Outburst of magnetic field activity are seen on the theoretical model. Even in declining and low sunspot activity!

HERE WITH THE RIGHT EXPLANATION1) Open the excell file

2) Chart 3 is an example of an end result

3) Click on sheet 1

4) Change A5

5) The end formula will be changed immediately

6) Change A6

7) Put the mouse on row I number 1

8) Pull it lower

9) Push F11

10) The new chart will appear!

How to enlarge it?1) Put the mouse on the last number from row C (now 486)

2) Pull it lower with the black dot on the right

3) Do the same with row F and I

4) Repeat 7 till 10

A Theoretical Calculation of the Sunspot CycleWith the help of a simple integral, a theoretical sunspot cycle of eleven years can be imitated (copied) as follows:

The polar magnetic field of the sun rotates (theoretically) in about 37.2 days; the equatorial field in 25.75 days (the average of the last 75 years: see Long Term Variations of the Torsional Oscillations of the Sun, Solar Physics 170: 373/388, 1997, by Dirk K. Callebaut). At a certain moment, the equatorial field takes over from the polar field. Therefore we can only investigate the relationship between the field of the sun and an independent observer by measuring only each take-over movement. Through this we always compare only two variants: the converging positions of the fields in relation to the shifted point of observation. In fact we are doing nothing more than calculating the winding process of the magnetic field of the sun. At this moment we can calculate the numbers of the fields together with the converging position:

360 / 25.75 = 13.9805825 degrees

360 / 37.19 = 9.6800215 degrees

The difference is: 13.9805825 – 9.6800215 = 4.30055848 degrees

The polar field is taken over by the equatorial field after the following number of days:

360 / 4.30055848 = 83.710058 days = 1 bit

The number of circles traveled by the equatorial field is:

83.710058 / 25.75 = 3.25087545

The number of circles traveled by the polar field is:

83.710058 / 37.19 = 2.25087545

0.25087545 circle forms a bit and will be used as a basic unit in the calculation

First point:

0.25087545 x 360 = degrees

= 91,3 degrees

= A

Put this in relation with an observer who travels the length of the mean of the polar and equatorial field in one day.

Total length equator field = 4.370.880 km

Mean of Polar field = between 700.000 km and 900.000 km = 800.000 km

4.370.880 + 800.000 = 5.170.880 km

mean =2.585.440 km

=> This is about equal with the speed of an object that travels 360 days around the sun in one year (plus/ minus)

=> To be corrected when we know the circumference of the polar field more excactly

Comparisson speed earth

Speed earth = 29,77 km sec

29,77 x sidereal day = 2.565.000 km/day

Conclusion Point B goes in plus minus 360 days around the sun

in this case = 83, 7 days = 83,7 degrees because days is same as degrees

= B

A - B = end formula

When you calculate and subtract both graphics, the result will be the difference between the magnetic field of the sun and an independent observer. Filling in the previous numbers in the Excel file this results in a sunspot cycle of 54.5 bits. 54.5 x 83.710058 days = 4,562.2 days = 12.49 years.

Note:

The changes of speed of both the equatorial and polar fields were not taken into account.

Sunspot cycle of 9 yearsWe change the hypothetical speed of the polar field into 37.16 days:

360 / 25.75 = 13.9805825 degrees

360 / 37.16 = 9.68783638 degrees

Difference = 4.292746117 degrees

360 / 4.292746117 = 83.86240187 days = 1 bit

83.86240187 / 25.75 = 3.2567923

0.2567923 circle = 1 bit

When you put these numbers in the Excel file the result is a sunspot cycle of 42 bits.

42 x 83.86240187 = 3,522.2 days = 9.64 years.

Important conclusions:1) Only a small change in the speed of the polar or equatorial field can result in a considerable prolongation or deceleration of the sunspot cycle.

2) From a mathematical point of view there has to exist a very close correlation between the equatorial and polar field.

3) The sunspot cycle together with the polar reversal of the magnetic field of the sun lasts longer when the polar field rotates somewhat slower. A difference of only (!) 0.0807 percent causes the cycle to rise from 9.64 to 12.49 years!

Third example: the cycle of 11 yearsSpeed of the polar field: 37.176 days

360 / 37.176 = 9.683666882 degrees

360 / 25.75 = 13.9805825 degrees

Difference: 4.296915618 degrees

360 / 4.296915618 = 83.7810262 days = 1 bit

83.7810262 / 25.75 = 3.25363208 circle

0.25363208 circle = 1 bit

When you put these data in the Excel file, the result is a sunspot cycle of 48.0 bits.

48.0 x 83.7810 = 4,021.5 days = 11.01 years.

Very low sunspot activity Equator field: 25.75

Polar field: 37.291

Very long cycle

=> ALMOST ZERO SUNSPOT ACTIVITY!

To be studied:Speed equator field: 25.75

When you slow down the speed of the polar field further to 37.4075, the length of the sunspot cycle DECREASES again to 11 years!

Question:Is this a possible explanation for the change of the magnetic field every 11 years?

1) Cycle of 11 years based on a speed of 25.75 days (equator field) and 37.176 days (polar field)

2) Cycle of 11 years based on a speed of 25.75 days (equator field) and 37.4075 days (polar field)

=> First cycle + and other - ?

*************