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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Sat Feb 06, 2010 4:29 am

Hello,

I mentioned that the compounded solar minima of both the 11 year cycle and the Wolf-Gleissberg cycle could possibly make the effects I am monitoring more pronounced. There are other things that are also following this pattern of becoming more pronounced with minima.

Here is the solar cycle activity using sunspots as a measuring stick over the decades;

Image
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/144051main_ButterflyDiagramLG.jpg

As you can see the last prior Wolf-Gleissberg solar minima that compounded with the 11 year cycle was in ~1913. There are two other events that also leap to mind that stick out of the solar data from that time period.

The last time Washington DC had as much snow as today was in 1922. This follows the 80-120 year Wolf-Gleissberg cycle.

During solar minima the sun produces less UVB, during a compouned minima is produces significantly less UVB. UVB produces vitamin D in most vertebrates when their skin is exposed to UVB. Vitamin D is now being found to fight influenza. When there is less UVB there is less serum vitamin D on Earth. When there is less serum vitamin D there are more cases of influenza on Earth. When there are more cases there is more recombination of virus. With more recombination there are more agressive and lethal strains produced. The Spanish Influenza pandemic occured in 1918. This again is a solar effect that is amplified by cycles compounding in minima.

We may be approaching the same point of solar minima, if not this 11 year minima cycle the next.

If you would like to read more about the Wolf-Gleissberg solar minima;

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=3&ved=0CBIQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS1474706506000192&ei=GFFtS_jTGsqXtgfpsriRBg&mk=0&mb=2&usg=AFQjCNFbmEAS_bn1Ya600hHxfThm1fE8pQ&sig2=Bpmwdc2kildt7oPEIOtJow

80–120 yr Long-term solar induced effects on the earth, past and predictions

Abstract
The 80–120 year solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycles have wide effects on the Earth’s environment. Studying past effects can throw light on future predictions of solar terrestrial relations at similar solar activity levels. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of such cycles when changes in solar spin rates occur. Reversing of North Atlantic Oscillations can be interpreted in terms of solar stimuli. The sudden abrupt rises of lakes levels and closed seas are solar forced. It is anticipated that the Aral and the Dead Sea will recover in the near future. Following drought conditions in African Equatorial lakes by the end of cycle 23 around 2008 ± 2 yr, cyclic rises and falls of lakes level are expected to be coherent with the weak cycles 24 to perhaps 26 when solar forcings will reverse or cease to exist.

The Atlanto Canadian fish disappearance dilemma is a natural Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced effect and is expected to recover in due time.


It is this compounding of solar cycle minima that makes earthquakes stand out in the data.

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Sat Feb 06, 2010 7:11 am

Hello,

If I am correct about the progression of the Wolf-Gleisberg solar minima as related to geologic and environmental effects I am very concerned.

Due to solar forcing, as related to solar cycles geologic and weather patterns repeat themselves within the cycles.

As you know, I can already point to a few environmental issues tied to the Wolf-Gleissberg 80-120 year solar cycle. The last minima in that cycle occurred in ~1913. It all has to do with the amount of solar wind (solar plasma) leaking into the earth’s magnetosphere and the knock-on affects.

So what other environmental event will follow the Wolf-Gleissberg solar minima?

The Dust Bowl or the Dirty Thirties was a period of severe dust storms causing major ecological and agricultural damage to American and Canadian prairie lands from 1930 to 1936 (in some areas until 1940).

About 20 years after the Wolf-Gleissberg solar minima the dust bowl of the North American prairie lands will repeat.

This will reoccur in our lifetime so we may have direct evidence.

Currently we are just prior to the minima in the Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycle, what happened around the same time last cycle?

The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was a major earthquake that struck San Francisco, California, and the coast of Northern California at 5:12 a.m. on Wednesday, April 18, 1906.[2] The most widely accepted estimate for the magnitude of the earthquake is a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.8; however, other values have been proposed, from 7.7 to as high as 8.25.[3] The main shock epicenter occurred offshore about 2 miles (3 km) from the city, near Mussel Rock. It ruptured along the San Andreas Fault both northward and southward for a total of 296 miles (477 km).[4]

California is going to get hit again in the near future with a LARGE quake. We are fast approaching the same point in the Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycle.

The pre-shocks are already beginning off of the northern California coast;

Magnitude 5.9 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2010 February 04 20:20:21 UTC
Earthquake Details
Magnitude
5.9

Date-Time
Thursday, February 04, 2010 at 20:20:21 UTC
Thursday, February 04, 2010 at 12:20:21 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location
40.412°N, 124.961°W

Depth
23.6 km (14.7 miles)

Region
OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

Distances
58 km (36 miles) W (280°) from Petrolia, CA
62 km (38 miles) WSW (253°) from Ferndale, CA
72 km (44 miles) WSW (255°) from Fortuna, CA
79 km (49 miles) WSW (238°) from Eureka, CA
364 km (226 miles) NW (306°) from Sacramento, CA


Millions may die.

What do I do if my data is correct? I am a lone voice in the wilderness noting a correlation in data, and many would argue my findings.

Where are we in the compounded 11 year and 80-120 year minimas;

Image

I am very sure we are within 10 years of a major California quake.,

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Sat Feb 06, 2010 7:23 am

Hello,

My data indicates that the LARGE California eatthquke will occur in the month of April. Whether this April or not I cannot say, it all depends on solar forcing and the exact point we are in within a slightly variable 80-120 year cycle. Why April? That is when solar activity begins to drop in the Northern Hemisphere;

Image

As I have stated solar minima seems to amplify earthquakes. We are approaching a compounded minima, and the annual seasonal activity really begins to drop off in the month of April.

This translates to a large short term (year/years) quake in California in that month.

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby mharratsc » Sun Feb 07, 2010 2:41 pm

Well, you know what they say: "Two's a coincidence, and Three is a trend."

If you get three predictions correct based on your data, I think you'd be okay with approaching someone with it. o.O
Mike H.

"I have no fear to shout out my ignorance and let the Wise correct me, for every instance of such narrows the gulf between them and me." -- Michael A. Harrington
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Mon Feb 08, 2010 4:38 am

Hello,

I have checked my theory, with existing data for previous quakes, and the pattern holds. Thank goodness that geomagnetic data is so readily available on the internet.

I believe I have isolated the trigger, but I need to go back historically. If not the trigger the smoking gun.

Note this solar flux x-ray spike that occurs in solar minima between the last two cycles.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_2BTNH5l9XNU/S2_1P8iYwRI/AAAAAAAAASU/nHGT3QWZ2XU/s1600/quake%2Btrigger.GIF
Image

Also note how much more frequent the events occurred as the last solar cycle wound down. Almost as if the 11 year cycle and 100 year cycle were overlaying each other (graph is much darker). I am not sure if this is a problem in the graphing or if solar x-ray flux activity is simply elevated.

How much more amplified will that spike be if we are in coming out of the 11 year cycle and the 100 year Wolf Gliessberg solar cycle?

This is where we are now in the x-ray cycle during this minima. No spike has occurred yet.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_2BTNH5l9XNU/S2_1sASb06I/AAAAAAAAASc/Jh4Fx0FxBzI/s400/flux.bmp
Image

I think it is a safe bet that when the two cycles are in minima together and turn the corner towards maxima there will be a more pronounced spike in activity that will cause the California earthquake greater than 7.0 magnitude. That means April 2010 or April 2021.

As I have said the solar cycles are like a roller coaster riding a roller coaster. If you were riding in a coaster that was riding inside another coaster and they both plunged downhill simultaneously would that make your ride more pronounced? Imagine the simultaneous effect when you hit the bottom of that hill.

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:33 am

Hi,

Let me cite an example we all recall...

Quake of '89 and the World Series Earthquake, was a major earthquake that struck the San Francisco Bay Area of California on October 17, 1989, at 5:04 p.m. local time. Caused by a slip along the San Andreas Fault, the temblor lasted 10–15 seconds[1] and measured 6.9 on the moment magnitude scale


This is the one where the double decker freeway collapsed.

By my theory there would have been a geomagnetic spike ~12 days prior to the quake. We should see spikes in the Am index and the solar flux index on approximately October 4th or 5th.

Image

Image

Bingo!

It also happens we were just coming out of solar minima in 1989.

I am pretty confident that we can expect a major California quake when bothe the 11 year solar cycle and the 100 year solar cycle turns the corner upwards in unison.

RADIO-ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Behemoth sunspot 1045 is crackling with M-class solar flares--and that's not all. "There have been many loud shortwave radio bursts over the past two days," reports amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft of New Mexico. "Some of the bursts have completely saturated my receivers." Just listen to the sounds coming from the loudspeakers in his observatory. (continued below)


Image

That corner may be turned very soon. I have not completed research yet, but April through October loom as possibilites.

Why the greastest potential April through October? That is the major annual turn in solar activity. The quke will occur when both the 11 year and 100 year solar cycle turns the corner regardess of date, and we will have a ~12 day notice to prepare;

Image

We know the 1906 California quake just preceded the the end of the laast Wolf-Gleissberg cycle which ended in 1910. There was another big one in the Carribean on the other end of the 100 year cycle turning upwards;

In 1918, another 7.5 magnitude earthquake in the Mona Passage, between Puerto Rico and Haiti, produced a 20-foot wave on the west coast of Puerto Rico. There were 116 fatalities, 40 of them directly from the tsunami.
It is the turn in the solar cycle that is the danger.

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:57 am

Hi.

There is a potential for a California earthquake, magnitude >=3.0 and <= 5.0 on ~February 14, 2010.

There is a potential for a Oklahoma earthquake, magnitude <=2.5 on ~February 15, 2010.

I will leave it there and see what happens.Tom


Magnitude 4.5 - BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
2010 February 14 21:35:47 UTC http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci10542525.php


Magnitude 4.1 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2010 February 15 00:07:09 UTC http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci10542589.php


Magnitude 2.8 - OKLAHOMA
2010 February 15 03:32:25 UTC http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/us2010stak.php


Getting both California and Oklahoma is good predicting in my book. Although I did under estimate the magnitude of Oklahoma by .3.

It is all about plasma.

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby MattEU » Mon Feb 15, 2010 6:02 pm

a good theory predicts...earthquakes

how/when did you start these ideas and investigations? any key EUreka moments?
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Mon Feb 15, 2010 7:25 pm

Hello,

Slogging through a lot of data and noticing trends. Funny thing, I was not looking for plasma and earthquakes, I was looking at plasma and weather. Earthquakes just jumped out of the data.

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Tue Feb 16, 2010 3:26 am

Hi,

February 27 and 28 is the next window for larger US west coast and Alaska earthquakes. That was a long, consistent solar storm, although particle denisty was not outstanding, it still leaked in.

Image
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Kp.gif

When the plasma that leaked into the magnetosphere discharges ~12 days from now, windows will rattle along the San Andreas.

Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby ElecGeekMom » Tue Feb 16, 2010 5:19 am

Oklahoma had a 3.2 EQ about 14 hours before the one that you cited. How does that fit in with your theory?

Would two EQs that close together be caused by the same plasma bubble?

So, now, with the storm-level K index yesterday afternoon and evening, should we be looking for another significant EQ in Oklahoma around Feb. 28 or Mar. 1?
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby ElecGeekMom » Tue Feb 16, 2010 5:22 am

One more question--since you were originally looking for connections between solar activity and the weather, did you notice a connection between solar flares and big storms, such as hurricanes or other large cyclonic storms?
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby tolenio » Tue Feb 16, 2010 6:27 am

Hello,

They already recognize a connection between solar storms enhancing low barometric pressure areas.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/4r2p474w0456110n/
Attention is paid to the generation of the Katrine hurricane with destructive consequences during the geomagnetic extrastorm of August 24, 2005, at a repeated crossing of the strongly disturbed IMF sector boundary. This fact is discussed in the light of the Eigenson-Usmanov hypothesis that solar activity can affect generation of hurricanes. According to the law of enhancement, solar activity and corresponding geomagnetic disturbances increase baric contrasts in the lower atmosphere over oceans on the Earth’s dayside hemisphere and decrease background pressure at tropical latitudes. It has been assumed that this can be one of the factors facilitating triggering of the positive feedback mechanisms necessary for generation and maintenance of hurricanes according to the Golitsyn [1999] model.


My reasearch shows that as plasma bubbles (plasmoids) move eastward they are preceded by a high pressure area and trail a low pressure area.

It is unclear to me whether this is due to plasma making gas more dense in the leading edge of the plasma bubble or simply gravity being enhanced due to plasma discharges in competing magnetic fields.

The effects of plasma discharges in competing magnetic fields becomes obvious when you overlay magnetic field strength mapping with gravity anomaly mapping. Again my data indicates a regular leak in the magnetosphere over the Indian Ocean. Note the changes in gravity at either side of the pinch located there.

Image

On the left of the pinch you have a negative gravity anomaly and on the right a positive gravity anomaly.

So as these plasma bubble moves eastwards you get;

Heating - Warm Fronts
Denser gas - Barometric changes
Plasma disharges - Lightning (lower region)
Plasma discharges - Gama ray burts (upper region)
plasma discharges - earthquakes (tectonic plate movement)

If you want to look at ocean surface temperatures as related to magnetic field strength you can see the bulk of the plasma bubbles steer for areas of low magnetic field strength, and since the plasma contains portions of the sun's magentic field it would be repulsed to weaker magnetic field areas once trapped inside the magnetosphere.

Image

It is all about solar plasma and plasma discharges once trapped in the magnetosphere. La less plasma, il more plasma. (smile)

Welcome to the Wolf-Gleissberg solar minima (~100 year solar cycle) and the snow it brings to the south. It will also bring more earthquakes and geologic activity. The last time it was here was between 1906-1918

1906;

An earthquake in Esmeraldas, Ecuador/Colombia January 31, 1906 leaves an estimated 1,000 dead; magnitude 8.8 Deaths came from a related tsunami.

a quake in Taiwan (Formosa) March 16, 1906 kills 1,300; The 1906 Meishan earthquake (traditional Chinese: 1906年梅山地震; pinyin: 1906 nián Měishān Dìzhèn) was a magnitude 7.1 earthquake which occurred on March 17, 1906 and was centred on Meishan Township, Jiayi County, Taiwan. Referred to at the time as the Great Ka-gi earthquake

The San Francisco earthquake April 18, 1906 is the worst ever to hit a U.S. city. The violent tremor of the San Andreas fault jolts the city at 5:13 A.M., it lasts less than a minute, but its strength will later be calculated as registering 8.25 on the Richter scale (see 1935). It cracks water and gas mains, and the ensuing 3-day fire razes two-thirds of the city, destroys 28,000 buildings on 520 city blocks, consumes property estimated at more than $400 million in value, and leaves 250,000 homeless. Troops are rushed in to restore order, they have orders to shoot looters on sight, but the soldiers themselves are the biggest looters (see commerce, 1907).

Mt. Vesuvius - In May, 1905, a new eruption began, firstly with slow lava effusions and, since January, 1906, with intermittent explosive activity (strombolian activity). On the 7th of April, 1906 the eruption reached the climax with lava fountains and earthquakes. The eruptive column of ash and gas reached the height of 13000 m. The eruption ends in the last days of April.

Monster quake August 17, 1906 levels Santíago, Chile, killing an estimated 20,000.

Puerto Rico October 20, 1906, 4:10pm: Felted in almost all the island. IV-VI (RF) reported from San Juan and Las Cruces (PRWRA; DH; RT).




Tom
"The Pharisees and the scholars have taken the keys of knowledge and have hidden them. They have not entered nor have they allowed those who want to enter to do so. As for you, be as sly as snakes and as simple as doves." Gospel of Thomas http://www.gnosis.org/naghamm/gthlamb.html
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby ElecGeekMom » Tue Feb 16, 2010 8:19 am

ElecGeekMom wrote:Oklahoma had a 3.2 EQ about 14 hours before the one that you cited. How does that fit in with your theory?

Would two EQs that close together be caused by the same plasma bubble?

So, now, with the storm-level K index yesterday afternoon and evening, should we be looking for another significant EQ in Oklahoma around Feb. 28 or Mar. 1?



Sorry. My math is apparently not very good when I first roll out of the rack.... :oops: The earlier one was about 46 hours before the one you cited.

These are local times. The 3.2 was Friday night at 11:30 p.m. at 35.566 N, 97.215 W.
The other one was Sunday night at 9:32 p.m. at 35.570 N, 97.275 W.
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Re: Ames Structure Oklahoma?

Unread postby ElecGeekMom » Tue Feb 16, 2010 8:39 am

There is an article in today's Oklahoman newspaper that says they now say there is a fault near Jones, where so many of the recent earthquakes have taken place. I haven't found the article in the online version of the paper, though.

They recently brought in a NetQuake unit to monitor the area.

Before this, the official word was that there is no fault at that location, but that story is changing.

Here is a link to the story about the NetQuake unit:

http://www.newsok.com/article/3434459?s ... ick=search
Last edited by ElecGeekMom on Tue Feb 16, 2010 8:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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