Brace yourselves for Comet ISON (coming 2013)

[Corona]

This is going to be exciting: the newly discovered comet C/2012 S1 ISON is still beyond the orbit of Jupiter, but will have a close encounter (0.012 AU) with the Sun at the end of November in 2013 and Earth (0.4 AU) at the beginning of January 2014! The comet has a highly eccentric orbit. In terms of the EU this means of course that the charge differential is going to be enormous (cosmologists think this might be its first visit to the inner Solar System). Even they think the show will be grand, making the comet visible to the naked eye for months in the sky. Why do I get the feeling they might be in for a surprise? What could its effects be on Earth?





http://remanzacco.blogspot.it/2012/09/n ... -ison.html

Someone has already pointed out that the orbit is also very close the the great comet of 1680. Perhaps they both had the same origin?

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/come ... sage/19851
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Comet_of_1680

[Corona]

I don`t seem to be able to edit my first post, so I will continue posting here.

Comet researcher J. Bortle has pointed out that:

"At the moment the most interesting aspect of this new object to me are the
orbital elements' distinct and surprising similarity to those of the Great
Comet of 1680. Let me point out that it would seem to me to be a virtual
impossibility for this to be just pure coincidence. Let me explain further."

An excerpt from The Dutch and Quaker Colonies in America , by John Fiske, 1903 Edition, Vol II, at page 59 about the great comet of 1680:

"An enormous comet, perhaps the most magnificent one on record, suddenly made its appearance. At first it was tailless and dim, like a nebulous cloud, but at the end of a week the tail began to show itself and in a second week had attained a length of 30 degrees; in the third week it extended to 70 degrees, while the whole mass was growing brighter. After five weeks it seemed to be absorbed into the intense glare of the sun, but in four days more it reappeared like a blazing sun itself in the throes of some giant convulsion and threw out a tail in the opposite direction as far as the whole distance between the sun and the earth."

Even if comet ISON is not related to the comet of 1680, the orbital elements as pointed out by Bortle are very interesting (especially if one keeps the EU in mind). What I find equally intriguing is that back in 1680 the sun was in what is now called the "maunder minimum", a period with extremely low sunspot activity. In contrast to today (even considering the weak Solar Cycle 24) the sun is much more active. Therefore, if the comets´ orbits are similar, but the sun is now much more active, what will this mean for the comet itself? Could it put on a remarkable show?

[PersianPaladin]

Interesting stuff, albeit it is early days - and it's likely close fly-by to the sun's surface makes its future behaviour somewhat unpredictable. Don't forget the hype over Comet Kohoutek, which failed to live up to expectations:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Kohoutek

[Corona]

Interesting stuff, albeit it is early days - and it's likely close fly-by to the sun's surface makes its future behaviour somewhat unpredictable. Don't forget the hype over Comet Kohoutek, which failed to live up to expectations:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Kohoutek

hadn`t heard about that comet yet (I guess thats not very surprising then ). Maybe it`s size was overestimated or it had something to do with the close approach to solar minimum that year:

[PersianPaladin]

Interesting stuff, albeit it is early days - and it's likely close fly-by to the sun's surface makes its future behaviour somewhat unpredictable. Don't forget the hype over Comet Kohoutek, which failed to live up to expectations:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Kohoutek

hadn`t heard about that comet yet (I guess thats not very surprising then ). Maybe it`s size was overestimated or it had something to do with the close approach to solar minimum that year:

It seems, that with the right luck - we could see a reasonable display in about a year's time. Fingers crossed.

[electrodogg1]

Corona said

What I find equally intriguing is that back in 1680 the sun was in what is now called the "maunder minimum", a period with extremely low sunspot activity. In contrast to today (even considering the weak Solar Cycle 24) the sun is much more active. Therefore, if the comets´ orbits are similar, but the sun is now much more active, what will this mean for the comet itself? Could it put on a remarkable show?

Interesting question. But if the sun is more active now than in 1680 during the Maunder Minimum, might not the electric field of the entire heliosphere be at a higher intensity such that there is a smaller differential between the intensity of the electric field at Jupiter's orbit compared to Mercury's orbit, and consequently the electro discharge machining that will take place on the surface of Ison as it approaches the sun will be less spectacular than the 1680 comet?

I'm just saying that it all depends on the field differential and I wonder whether the differential is higher at solar minimum or maximum. Does someone with more electrical background know?

[Corona]

Interesting question. But if the sun is more active now than in 1680 during the Maunder Minimum, might not the electric field of the entire heliosphere be at a higher intensity such that there is a smaller differential between the intensity of the electric field at Jupiter's orbit compared to Mercury's orbit, and consequently the electro discharge machining that will take place on the surface of Ison as it approaches the sun will be less spectacular than the 1680 comet?

I'm just saying that it all depends on the field differential and I wonder whether the differential is higher at solar minimum or maximum. Does someone with more electrical background know?

well I am not an expert, but to me it would make sense, if they both are proportional to another. A field generally weaker will be weaker everywhere and vice versa making the charge differential the same in both cases. I still think the size will be very important. If the comet is something like Elenin (in which the EU proposed that the charge differential was big leading to a disintegration, but the comet itself small) it might have the same fate. But if it is big, there willl definitely be a big charge differential as it is very elliptic and has such a long orbital period.

[promethean]

The Remanzacco.blogspot noted above mentions a very close Mars/ISON encounter in October,2013 ...the simulation is said to indicate a possible perturbation ! Could this be a game-changer ?

[Corona]

The Remanzacco.blogspot noted above mentions a very close Mars/ISON encounter in October,2013 ...the simulation is said to indicate a possible perturbation ! Could this be a game-changer ?

keep in mind that the comet is inclined to the orbital plane of the solar system. It`s still pretty far away if you adjust the viewing angle. But the simulation will most likely be slightly corrected when more data is available.

[Corona]

New Comet Discovered—May Become "One of Brightest in History"
Next year comet 2012 S1 might outshine the moon.

If astronomers' early predictions hold true, the holidays next year may hold a glowing gift for stargazers—a superbright comet, just discovered streaking near Saturn.

Even with powerful telescopes, comet 2012 S1 (ISON) is now just a faint glow in the constellation Cancer. But the ball of ice and rocks might become visible to the naked eye for a few months in late 2013 and early 2014—perhaps outshining the moon, astronomers say.

The comet is already remarkably bright, given how far it is from the sun, astronomer Raminder Singh Samra said. What's more, 2012 S1 seems to be following the path of the Great Comet of 1680, considered one of the most spectacular ever seen from Earth.


http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... pace-moon/


not that I believe that this means too much (as they are obviously working with the premise of a "dirty snowball") but a bump for some mainstram coverage.

[tayga]

Interesting question. But if the sun is more active now than in 1680 during the Maunder Minimum, might not the electric field of the entire heliosphere be at a higher intensity such that there is a smaller differential between the intensity of the electric field at Jupiter's orbit compared to Mercury's orbit, and consequently the electro discharge machining that will take place on the surface of Ison as it approaches the sun will be less spectacular than the 1680 comet?

I'm just saying that it all depends on the field differential and I wonder whether the differential is higher at solar minimum or maximum. Does someone with more electrical background know?

well I am not an expert, but to me it would make sense, if they both are proportional to another. A field generally weaker will be weaker everywhere and vice versa making the charge differential the same in both cases. I still think the size will be very important. If the comet is something like Elenin (in which the EU proposed that the charge differential was big leading to a disintegration, but the comet itself small) it might have the same fate. But if it is big, there willl definitely be a big charge differential as it is very elliptic and has such a long orbital period.

If the field were generally stronger I would have thought that the field gradient would increase and the charge differential would be greater.

[Corona]

Interesting question. But if the sun is more active now than in 1680 during the Maunder Minimum, might not the electric field of the entire heliosphere be at a higher intensity such that there is a smaller differential between the intensity of the electric field at Jupiter's orbit compared to Mercury's orbit, and consequently the electro discharge machining that will take place on the surface of Ison as it approaches the sun will be less spectacular than the 1680 comet?

I'm just saying that it all depends on the field differential and I wonder whether the differential is higher at solar minimum or maximum. Does someone with more electrical background know?

well I am not an expert, but to me it would make sense, if they both are proportional to another. A field generally weaker will be weaker everywhere and vice versa making the charge differential the same in both cases. I still think the size will be very important. If the comet is something like Elenin (in which the EU proposed that the charge differential was big leading to a disintegration, but the comet itself small) it might have the same fate. But if it is big, there willl definitely be a big charge differential as it is very elliptic and has such a long orbital period.

If the field were generally stronger I would have thought that the field gradient would increase and the charge differential would be greater.

I totally agree with you on this, but if the field gradient would be generally stronger throughout the Heliosphere wouldn`t that also mean that the comet would start to discharge to its environment when it is still further away from the sun, therefore adapting to a stronger electric field at an earlier stage and reducing the charge potential?

If the field is weaker, then the comet would discharge at a later time (when it is closer to the sun) and would therefore keep more of its potential charge.

Obviously I don`t know if this is indeed the case (still learning ) Another interesting question I would like to know is how much does the field gradient increase with proximity to the sun? Is it exponential at some point?

[promethean]

The Remanzacco.blogspot noted above mentions a very close Mars/ISON encounter in October,2013 ...the simulation is said to indicate a possible perturbation ! Could this be a game-changer ?

keep in mind that the comet is inclined to the orbital plane of the solar system. It`s still pretty far away if you adjust the viewing angle. But the simulation will most likely be slightly corrected when more data is available.

Corona ... Thanks for your earlier response...

This angle to the ecliptic...is it perhaps 24 degrees or so ? And it's orbital axis wouldn't point towards the Saturn Systems origin by any chance ,would it ?

[promethean]

(correction: I think 31 degrees would be that hypothetical entry angle )

From SKYMANIA :The new comet’s orbit is nearly parabolic which tells astronomers that it may be on its first trip into the Solar System from the Oort Cloud, a vast reservoir of icy debris surrounding the Solar System. It might therefore eject vast jets of gas and dust and be spectacular with a fine tail and even become one of the finest comets ever witnessed by mankind.

How does that ICY DEBRIS survive the million degree HOT GAS recently "discovered" ?

HOT GAS INDEED !

[MrAmsterdam]

(correction: I think 31 degrees would be that hypothetical entry angle )

From SKYMANIA :The new comet’s orbit is nearly parabolic which tells astronomers that it may be on its first trip into the Solar System from the Oort Cloud, a vast reservoir of icy debris surrounding the Solar System. It might therefore eject vast jets of gas and dust and be spectacular with a fine tail and even become one of the finest comets ever witnessed by mankind.

How does that ICY DEBRIS survive the million degree HOT GAS recently "discovered" ?

HOT GAS INDEED !

Don't forget the second assumption ; the Oort Cloud

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oort_cloud

Although no confirmed direct observations of the Oort cloud have been made, astronomers believe that it is the source of all long-period and Halley-type[citation needed] comets entering the inner Solar System and many of the centaurs and Jupiter-family comets as well.[6]