Big drop in solar activity could mean much cooler Earth

[cigarshaped]

It my be premature to expect persian paladin's predictions to materialise any time soon. There must be a fair amount of thermal inertia/ hysteresis in the oceans to delay onset of major cooling. Electrically speaking the atmospheric 'capacitor' has also accumulated energy over time and will slug/ smooth sudden change. Cycles within cycles ensure meteorology remains such an imprecise art/ science.

I also wonder if the link between low sunspot vs higher cosmic ray entry, is still considered to be the cause for increased cloud cover?

[Dotini]

I've recently read a book by Svensmark and Calder called "The Chilling Stars". Also looked up the pilot study of cloud formation by cosmic rays by the CERN CLOUD experiment. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/10/1635/ ... -2010.html

It seems that the flux of cosmic rays drives the low level cloud cover on Earth. More cosmic rays means more clouds, because the rays provide charged particles (muons) for nucleation. The more clouds, the cooler is the Earth.

The flux of cosmic rays is modulated in small degree by the Earth's magnetic field, which is weakening, and more so by the Sun's magnetic field, which is also weakening, albeit from a very high strength.

But other factors also come into play. The Sun orbits the Milky Way every 240 million years, wanders in and out of the 4 galactic arms and bobs up and down through the plane of the galactic disc. This affects the count of cosmic rays, and these motions are associated by Svensmark with warming and cooling periods in Earth's history.

The strongest cosmic rays are thought to originate in exploding stars called supernovae. Formations of new stars and exploding old stars vary from time and place in the galaxy. According to Calder and Svensmark, the cosmic conditions right now are such that we might be able to look forward to relatively stable climate for some time, and that a new ice age, while inevitable, is some way off.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

[sjw40364]

As our Sun orbits around the galactic center it is likely to pass into regions of space that contain varying charges, as well as other stars may affect the Birkeland currents that connect throughout our galaxy. What happens if a star goes nova, does it send surges through the Birkeland currents? Perhaps temporarily reducing the overall density or even causing a temporary increase along the lines connecting it to other stars? Can we assume that the source of the power is always constant? What happens if a new star is formed, does it then reduce the overall charge causing cooling in its neighborhood? I have no idea, nor I doubt if anyone else does. Just thought I'd throw in my 2 cents

Update: Can the currents as they pass through sections of space that have a greater density of interstellar medium be affected and bleed of some of their charge?

[Julian Braggins]

Post by tomclintonn » Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:28 pm
CO2 is a product of every living creature's breathing it's the product of all plant respiration it is essential for plant life and photosynthes it is a product of all industrial burning if you ever wanted a leverage point to control everything from human exhalation to travel, this would be a dream. Large environmental groups, political "leaders" and eco-activists believe just reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and we can regulate the world temperature.

"believe" being the operative word. Although you can have correlation without causation, you cannot have causation without correlation. Because there is no correlation between CO2 and variations of world temperatures over the past century or more, there can be no cause implied.

Which is why there are continued attempts to alter data to show that there were no higher temperatures in the past, whether it is the peak in the '30's, or even the elimination of the medieval warm period via the infamous 'Hockey Stick' which incidentally has now been dropped at last by the IPCC.

[Dotini]

The flux of cosmic rays is modulated in small degree by the Earth's magnetic field, which is weakening, and more so by the Sun's magnetic field, which is also weakening, albeit from a very high strength.

http://cosmicconvergence.org/?p=1109
Impressive photos of extremely powerful positive lightning strikes are shown, together with news that the numbers and intensity of such strikes are on the rise. The claim is made that the origin of positive lightning may in part be due to cosmic rays.

It will be interesting to see if the solar and earthly magnetic fields continue to weaken, clouds and positive lighting strikes continue to increase, and if the climate could indeed be returning towards the cooler side.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

[nick c]

It will be interesting to see if the solar and earthly magnetic fields continue to weaken, clouds and positive lighting strikes continue to increase, and if the climate could indeed be returning towards the cooler side.

Yes, very interesting. Cooling or warming remains to be seen, but I would expect, following that logic, that cyclonic weather systems will be on the rise too, such as storms, hurricanes, and tornados. But I do not know what portion of this is the result of cosmic rays or just the Sun's weather having an increasing influence over the Earth's weather - due to the Earth's diminishing shield, its' magnetic field.
If our magnetic field is decreasing what will protect us from the effects of this?

In April of 2009, NASA’s THEMIS satellites found “electrical tornadoes” about 60,000 kilometers above the Earth at the interface between Earth’s magnetosphere and the solar wind.

http://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/2012/05 ... mposition/

also: THEMIS satellite tracks electrical tornadoes in space


Hows the Weather?

Like most sciences, meteorology still considers the Earth to be an isolated body in space. It is not. It is a charged body moving through an active plasma environment, surrounded by a web of electric currents commonly called the magnetosphere. Earth's surface and atmosphere are electrically connected through this magnetosphere to electrical conditions in space and on the Sun. Astronomers Sallie Baliunas and Willy Soon have shown that for as long as temperature records have been kept, the global temperatures of the Earth have correlated to the sunspot cycle. And the sunspot cycle also affects radio transmission and power grids.

The Electric Universe identifies more effects: Currents to the surface affect the jet streams, moving them closer to the equator when solar activity causes geomagnetic storms. These currents power thunderstorms, waterspouts and hurricanes. The image above is hurricane Frances in 2004. Its form is that of a plasma spiral, mimicking on a small scale the shape of a spiral galaxy and on a large scale the shape of interacting Birkeland currents in the laboratory.

I would expect that a diminishing magnetic field would have the long term effect of increasing the influence of the Sun's currents upon the Earth's weather.

[MrAmsterdam]

Piers Corbyn is a weather forecaster AND astronomer ;

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayart ... ?a=461&c=5

2) SLAT8 begins! - Coping with Approach to Little Ice Age type circulation changes
Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com on 29th May said:
"After studying weather developments in the last two months we have introduced some modifications to our Solar Lunar Action Technique. SLAT7a - which was about improving selection of detailed look-backs using lunar factors more strongly - did superbly at predicting the exceptionally cold weather in the first three weeks of May but does not well see the VERY RAPID ("Little Ice Age” type) changes experienced and specifically missed the sudden warming of around 22nd.
"Although our ‘at least 6 out of 8 weather periods basically correct’ in a month was met in May we want to improve on that and better handle the "approach to LIA weather types” REGIME the world is now in.
"The approach to LIA circulation we are now in (see also http://www.weatheraction.com/displayart ... ?a=451&c=5 ) is Solar Climate change here and now and is characterized by:

On the Sun a generally quieter and magnetically more confused state and slower solar wind.
Very large amplitude swings in the Jet stream (NH and SH) with the Jet stream average position shifted equator-wards.
General Cooling especially of temperate zones and simultaneous warm and cold (larger) regions marking different ‘ends’ of jet stream large amplitude wave effects.
Very rapid changes in weather particularly in temperate zones
Rapid changes in standard parameters – NAO, AO etc
Stark extremes including more giant hail and tornadic developments.
An increase in major earthquakes and volcanism
Serious limitations of the powers of standard meteorology even 1 or 2 days ahead at times. This was in evidence through most of April and May. These problems will largely continue for at least 25 years and no amount of tweeking standard models or increasing computer power even a thousand fold will overcome it. Standard Meteorology is past it's peak.
SLAT8 is designed to better predict in the approach to the New Little Ice Age circulation patterns the world is now in and uses a wider range of look-back weather data (NB we are constantly seeking more) and considers more rapid change options which may need more modification or changes (if rules suggest) of Look-Back maps particularly under potential sudden Jet stream switches and consequent sudden warming or sudden cooling in regions. SLAT 8 will also (as previous SLATs but more effectively) be able to give long range warning of impending errors in standard Meteorology.

June 2012 45day forecasts have been significantly changed in two weather periods through the month and this is indicated in the 30day forecast to be released on 31 May.

A general consequence of SLAT is that the Little Ice Ages** and periods such as The Medieval warm period and Bronze age were consequences of solar-lunar driven Jet stream shifts and hence covered the whole of the temperate zones in both North and South hemispheres at around the same time.
** Eg the Maunder Minimum around 350 years ago and the Dalton Minima around 200 years ago.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING NOW. IT IS DRIVEN BY THE SUN AND NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2!

He seems to put emphasis on extreme events such as tornado's, earthquakes, volcanoes and heavy storms.
You may want to check he lastest forecast on

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No25.pdf

[GaryN]

@dotini

It will be interesting to see if the solar and earthly magnetic fields continue to weaken, clouds and positive lighting strikes continue to increase, and if the climate could indeed be returning towards the cooler side.

I haven't found any figures, but I'm wondering if places like Catatumbo would be a good place to monitor for increased activity. Being at one end of the Andes, perhaps it is the equalisation point for currents running all down S.America, so any major increase in activity there may gives an early warning of worse to come?
The wiki entry has a more conventional explanation for the activity.
Catatumbo lightning: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catatumbo_lightning

[breddy]

I'm surprised to find so little mention of Catatumbo on this forum. It's a naturally occurring phenomenon, with a few hundred years of spectacular history, yet very little mention is made of it.

Possibly there's not much to say beyond the obvious, but I'm curious about an EU analysis of a large persistent lightning storm that's more or less geographically stable.

[Lloyd]

Looks like there are 3 places on this website where it's been discussed, including here: https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3A ... +Catatumbo.

Feel free to start a new thread on that subject, if you like. Or you could bring it up on a thread that already deals with similar phenomena.

[breddy]

Thanks Lloyd,

I was searching using the forum search, and only finding this thread as a single hit on 'Catatumbo'.

cheers

[celeste]

breddy, If Catatumbo has the uranium deposits that they suggest, maybe it is some effect like this:
http://www.chemteam.info/Chem-History/R ... &Beta.html
I don't claim to know, but it may be worth looking into.

[Adolfo Giurfa]

http://www.networkworld.com/community/b ... much-coole

"This is highly unusual and unexpected,"

<i>The price of hydrogen fuel must have gone up and the Sun is cutting back. Either way, let me diagnose the Sun's gravity waves and see what's going on. Collapse may be imminent.

</i>
What hydrogen fuel? The Sun it is a cathode relative to the galaxy. What we see of the Sun it is just its "atmosphere", more precisely its "thermosphere", as the Earth also has one, with its temperature varying from 1500ªC to 2500ºC. The solar solid "core" can easily be smaller than the earth. If you are young enough you´ll know the confirmation of what I am telling you.