Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

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Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby davesmith_au » Sat Oct 08, 2011 6:58 am

October 06, 2011 ~ by David Talbott

[A not to be missed very timely Thunderblog by Dave Talbott!]

The comet Elenin, a subject of intense Internet discussion for several months, seems to have disappointed everyone. I speak here not just of the doomsayers, who were awaiting a frightful specter in recent weeks. You might think these folks would be happy that the celebrated intruder faded fast just when it was supposed to be reaching maximum activity. But in these strange times, Doomsday seems a lot more fun than a minor distraction in our cosmic neighborhood. [More...]
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby starbiter » Sat Oct 08, 2011 8:59 am

I think there was a debate about comet Elenin. It was here at the Thunderbolts Forum. It's still going on.


viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4132&start=30

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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby Phorce » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:30 pm

A point I got from this; are we saying that Scientific investigations continue to be skewed/blocked by some kind of fear of what comets really are ? I don't subscribe to the Velikovsky school of thought, but I can see (I think) what Talbott is pointing out here with the obsession with "doomsday" events. There may be some historical evidence for this kind of thing. But it could be equally true that cult thinking within the New Age movement produces forms of religious fervor connected to cosmic events and/or cataclysms. Some parts of Science have equal amounts of cult thinking and dogma in their own ways. I'm not sure it's wise to assume any historical precedent for evidence of electrical catastrophism in light of the changing psychology that we live in. For example see this piece by Susan Rennison that shows how controlled our thought processes have become by the New Age cultic milieu and Scientific dogma.
Exploration and discovery without honest investigation of "extraordinary" results leads to a Double Bind (Bateson, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_bind ) that creates loss of hope and depression. No more Double Binds !
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby starbiter » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:53 pm

Hello Phorce: If the Carrington event happened today it would probably destroy the electric grid of the entire planet according to NASA, those doomsday newagers.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/sc ... gtonflare/

This wouldn't kill everyone, but after a few years we might count the population in millions, not billions. Without electricity there wouldn't be enough food, water, and infrastructure.

We live in an unstable neighborhood. According to myth and legend, very unstable. Every day is a gift.

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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby Sparky » Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:07 pm

If the Carrington event happened today it would probably destroy the electric grid of the entire planet according to NASA, those doomsday newagers.


First of all, i couldn't find that with a quick read. Second, how does one estimate the strength of such a past event? Thirdly, NASA is the same group that can not analyze it's own, fresh data!!

I did notice in that article that the telegraph continued to function.
It was the only long antenna device in operation at the time, and that is what it takes to gather enough energy to do damage.

Now if there was enough energy to blow away the magnetosphere, that's a different story.

Without electricity there wouldn't be enough food, water, and infrastructure.


I live about six blocks from emergency generators, and assume there are more in this world. In a pinch, i could come up with a substitute energy source. Much of the world does not have electricity, and they raise their own food. Rationing may be needed for some cities, but i think it could be figured out before billions die, not that that is a bad thing... ;)
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby starbiter » Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:37 pm

Sparky wrote:
If the Carrington event happened today it would probably destroy the electric grid of the entire planet according to NASA, those doomsday newagers.


First of all, i couldn't find that with a quick read. Second, how does one estimate the strength of such a past event? Thirdly, NASA is the same group that can not analyze it's own, fresh data!!

I did notice in that article that the telegraph continued to function.
It was the only long antenna device in operation at the time, and that is what it takes to gather enough energy to do damage.

Now if there was enough energy to blow away the magnetosphere, that's a different story.

Without electricity there wouldn't be enough food, water, and infrastructure.


I live about six blocks from emergency generators, and assume there are more in this world. In a pinch, i could come up with a substitute energy source. Much of the world does not have electricity, and they raise their own food. Rationing may be needed for some cities, but i think it could be figured out before billions die, not that that is a bad thing... ;)



Hello Sparky: I was assuming that printed circuits would melt. The metalic wires are 1/1500 the width of a hair. Melting doesn't seem like a stretch. The article points out the global nature of the Carrington event.

Water would be an immediate problem. Food later. Cities in deserts would be unsurvivable in weeks. Without irrigation food output would plummet.

Without printed circuits and a grid there would be no way out, other than horse or walking.

The government [US] is building shelters that are shielded with Faraday cages. This would help a few. They have generators and fuel.

I'm not predicting this or hoping for this. I'm just stating that it is possible. May we enjoy tomorrow and many more tomorrows.

Comet fragments are another story. There can be more than one, or none. Probably not a problem.

michael
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby Aardwolf » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:02 am

starbiter wrote:
Sparky wrote:
If the Carrington event happened today it would probably destroy the electric grid of the entire planet according to NASA, those doomsday newagers.


First of all, i couldn't find that with a quick read. Second, how does one estimate the strength of such a past event? Thirdly, NASA is the same group that can not analyze it's own, fresh data!!

I did notice in that article that the telegraph continued to function.
It was the only long antenna device in operation at the time, and that is what it takes to gather enough energy to do damage.

Now if there was enough energy to blow away the magnetosphere, that's a different story.

Without electricity there wouldn't be enough food, water, and infrastructure.


I live about six blocks from emergency generators, and assume there are more in this world. In a pinch, i could come up with a substitute energy source. Much of the world does not have electricity, and they raise their own food. Rationing may be needed for some cities, but i think it could be figured out before billions die, not that that is a bad thing... ;)



Hello Sparky: I was assuming that printed circuits would melt. The metalic wires are 1/1500 the width of a hair. Melting doesn't seem like a stretch. The article points out the global nature of the Carrington event.

Water would be an immediate problem. Food later. Cities in deserts would be unsurvivable in weeks. Without irrigation food output would plummet.

Without printed circuits and a grid there would be no way out, other than horse or walking.

The government [US] is building shelters that are shielded with Faraday cages. This would help a few. They have generators and fuel.

I'm not predicting this or hoping for this. I'm just stating that it is possible. May we enjoy tomorrow and many more tomorrows.

Comet fragments are another story. There can be more than one, or none. Probably not a problem.

michael

Why would this cause problems lasting years? What's stopping the 7 billion inhabitants here fixing the damaged equipment or making replacements? Why would we just sit idly by and wait to die?
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby Sparky » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:14 am

Aardwolf,
Why would this cause problems lasting years? What's stopping the 7 billion inhabitants here fixing the damaged equipment or making replacements? Why would we just sit idly by and wait to die?


No tv,,!..no internet?!!...how long could we survive without these??!!

A day, maybe!...then the anxiety would overwhelm us..grief reactions would take over our lives...deep depression would set in..
there would be nothing to live for, no reason to get out of bed....
why eat?! why try at all??!!.....just give up completely!!!.. :cry:
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby starbiter » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:25 am

Aardwolf wrote:
starbiter wrote:
Sparky wrote:
If the Carrington event happened today it would probably destroy the electric grid of the entire planet according to NASA, those doomsday newagers.


First of all, i couldn't find that with a quick read. Second, how does one estimate the strength of such a past event? Thirdly, NASA is the same group that can not analyze it's own, fresh data!!

I did notice in that article that the telegraph continued to function.
It was the only long antenna device in operation at the time, and that is what it takes to gather enough energy to do damage.

Now if there was enough energy to blow away the magnetosphere, that's a different story.

Without electricity there wouldn't be enough food, water, and infrastructure.


I live about six blocks from emergency generators, and assume there are more in this world. In a pinch, i could come up with a substitute energy source. Much of the world does not have electricity, and they raise their own food. Rationing may be needed for some cities, but i think it could be figured out before billions die, not that that is a bad thing... ;)



Hello Sparky: I was assuming that printed circuits would melt. The metalic wires are 1/1500 the width of a hair. Melting doesn't seem like a stretch. The article points out the global nature of the Carrington event.

Water would be an immediate problem. Food later. Cities in deserts would be unsurvivable in weeks. Without irrigation food output would plummet.

Without printed circuits and a grid there would be no way out, other than horse or walking.

The government [US] is building shelters that are shielded with Faraday cages. This would help a few. They have generators and fuel.

I'm not predicting this or hoping for this. I'm just stating that it is possible. May we enjoy tomorrow and many more tomorrows.

Comet fragments are another story. There can be more than one, or none. Probably not a problem.

michael

Why would this cause problems lasting years? What's stopping the 7 billion inhabitants here fixing the damaged equipment or making replacements? Why would we just sit idly by and wait to die?


Hello Aardwolf: Your vision of life without printed circuits and an electric grid [worldwide] is much different than mine. I hope we don't have a chance to determine a winner.

michael
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby Aardwolf » Wed Oct 26, 2011 8:14 am

starbiter wrote:
Why would this cause problems lasting years? What's stopping the 7 billion inhabitants here fixing the damaged equipment or making replacements? Why would we just sit idly by and wait to die?

Hello Aardwolf: Your vision of life without printed circuits and an electric grid [worldwide] is much different than mine. I hope we don't have a chance to determine a winner.

michael
I didn't provide a vision of life without printed circuits and an electric grid. I would just like to know why you believe humans would sit by for years just staring at this broken/damaged stuff and not bother to repair it.
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby starbiter » Wed Oct 26, 2011 1:43 pm

Hello again Aardwolf: I wouldn't count on any help from LA. Without printed circuits there would be little transportation available. No vehicles after the mid 80s. Electronic ignitions would be a problem. Old cars might work but getting fuel would be a big problem. No pumps or generators, except old ones. In LA/Orange County the water would last a few days. The crips and bloods [street gangs] would probably be the lasts ones standing. I'm not sure how many electrical engineers are crips or bloods. New York City might be problematic even though the beautiful Hudson River would be available for drinking. Ummmm. I'm sure the people would be kind to each other.

Without power for irrigation crop production would crash. This would most likely cause the population to crash proportionally. There would be survivors, and they would reestablish some infrastructure eventually. But by then the population would be measured in millions i'm afraid. NASA thinks it might take a year to replace the transformers. Without power it might take even longer.

I'm not sure printed circuits would be vulnerable during a Carrington like event. Hopefully not. Something similar to the Chicago fire where coins melted would probably melt printed circuits. That was a more local event, although spread over three states.


I like to not think about a Carrington Event, i prefer to concentrate on the Sun going Nova.

michael
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby Aardwolf » Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:19 pm

So your fear is that a Carrington type event would destroy all electrical equipment the world over simultaneoulsy. Is that what happened during the actual Carrington event? Every electrical system failed/destroyed? And would disconnected equipment be destroyed as well? Most if not all power generating station have mechanical backup systems anyhow so only the infrastructure is likely to harmed in most cases.

And you dont think that man might just attempt to mitigate the failure of these systems and equipment. A few hundred gang members is not going to trouble the USACE if required.

I'm not saying there may be some serious disruption. But more along the lines and scale of a natural disaster. Maybe some planes would come down, temporary loss of grid, etc. Reducing the population of the Earth from biliions to millions is just scaremongering. Around 2 billion dont even have any access to electricity. They wont even notice any disruption. Why will they all die?
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby starbiter » Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:08 pm

Aardwolf, have You read any of the links about the WORLDWIDE Carrington event.

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sugexp=kjr ... 80&bih=685



http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/sc ... gtonflare/
[...]
Just before dawn the next day, skies all over planet Earth erupted in red, green, and purple auroras so brilliant that newspapers could be read as easily as in daylight. Indeed, stunning auroras pulsated even at near tropical latitudes over Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii.

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Even more disconcerting, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire. Spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set the telegraph paper on fire. Even when telegraphers disconnected the batteries powering the lines, aurora-induced electric currents in the wires still allowed messages to be transmitted.
"What Carrington saw was a white-light solar flare—a magnetic explosion on the sun," explains David Hathaway, solar physics team lead at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

http://www.hlswatch.com/2011/06/26/a-ca ... ce-events/
[...]

But the biggest impact will be on the modern marvel known as the power grid. And experts warn that the grid is not ready. In 2008, the National Academy of Sciences stated that an 1859-level storm could knock out power in parts of the northeastern and northwestern United States for months, even years. Report co-author John Kappenmann estimated that about 135 million Americans would be forced to revert to a pre-electric lifestyle or relocate. Water systems would fail. Food would spoil. Thousands could die. The financial cost: Up to $2 trillion, one-seventh the annual U.S. gross domestic product.

Me again,
It doesn't seem a stretch that such an event, or something greater might melt printed circuits world wide.

One of the first things you learn when reading Wal Thornhill is that our neighborhood is not very stable. There seems to have been repeated electrical events that killed many people. Sometimes more than 90%. Much more, according to Worlds in Collision. The events seem to be from different causes. Ya never know where it might come from next. There may be a warning period, or not. This seems to be the reality. We live beneath the Sword of Damocles. Fortunately things have been pretty quite for some time. The folks from the Chicago Fire, Tunguska, the Carrington Event, or the New Madrid Earthquake might argue with that. But this is small change. Venus would probably get your attention as a comet that returns every 52 years.

If i said these things are going to happen tomorrow,that would be fear mongering. I do say something along these lines will happen some day. Maybe not for a long time, maybe before sunrise. I've been living under the threat of nuclear armageddon my entire life. If i saw the bright light as a kid i supposed to duck and cover. Were hanging by a thread, enjoy life. Be nice to people. Things will take care of themselves.

Call me a fear monger if You like.

I'm strangely comfortable with our situation. I've been lucky so far. My concern is the children. I hope they get old like me.

michael
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby Aardwolf » Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:59 am

starbiter wrote:Aardwolf, have You read any of the links about the WORLDWIDE Carrington event.
And it caused how many deaths?

Just like I said and confirmed by your alarmist link the extent of mortality would be, worst case, confined to the thousands;

Thousands could die.

And please explain exactly why circuit boards would be affected. The Carrington event caused surplus charge over the telegraph system so I agree the power grid is definitely at risk but why does that mean fused and supply procted circuits and even disconnected circuits would be affected?

And you still haven't explained why we would just sit by and watch these things happen. Even during the Carrrington event systems were shut down to protect them. And that was before they even knew what the sun was capable of. You dont think the utility companies are able to mitigate the effects of severe solar flares or have any failsafes, backup etc? And the Carrington event didn't destroy all the telegraph systems; some were completely unaffected. Why will the next one destroy everything, plugged in or not?

Even if it did take us by surprise why would we be incapable of repairing/replacing? You seem to have absolutely no faith in what humans are capable of especially under adversity.

Further you haven't explained why the 2 billion inhabitants who have no electricity (most probably unaware of its existance) will die. What will they die of?
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Re: Comet Elenin—the Debate that Never Happened...

Unread postby starbiter » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:19 am

Aardwolf wrote:
starbiter wrote:Aardwolf, have You read any of the links about the WORLDWIDE Carrington event.
And it caused how many deaths?

Just like I said and confirmed by your alarmist link the extent of mortality would be, worst case, confined to the thousands;

Thousands could die.

And please explain exactly why circuit boards would be affected. The Carrington event caused surplus charge over the telegraph system so I agree the power grid is definitely at risk but why does that mean fused and supply procted circuits and even disconnected circuits would be affected?

And you still haven't explained why we would just sit by and watch these things happen. Even during the Carrrington event systems were shut down to protect them. And that was before they even knew what the sun was capable of. You dont think the utility companies are able to mitigate the effects of severe solar flares or have any failsafes, backup etc? And the Carrington event didn't destroy all the telegraph systems; some were completely unaffected. Why will the next one destroy everything, plugged in or not?

Even if it did take us by surprise why would we be incapable of repairing/replacing? You seem to have absolutely no faith in what humans are capable of especially under adversity.

Further you haven't explained why the 2 billion inhabitants who have no electricity (most probably unaware of its existance) will die. What will they die of?



Hello Aardwolf: In my last post i stated that a repeat of the Carrington might not melt printed circuits [PC}. Above You ask why it would. I'm not certain an Electromagnetic pulse [EMP] wouldn't melt printed circuits, are You.?

During the Carrington Event [CE} only telegraph operators were burned and injured. I never stated the telegraph system was destroyed. Please. Things have changed slightly since 1859. It's transformers and electronics that are vulnerable, not so much the wires.

Even when the battery power was removed the system remained energized. That is a clue.

We have become dependent on a highly sophisticated system requiring electricity and printed circuits. Without these the food that feeds the 2 billion people without electricity would diminish greatly. Water also. Without PC the transportation system would grind to a halt. Logistics would become impossible for the needs of 7 billion.

The consequences of an EMP could be mitigated by disconnecting the grid. If more people were aware of EU concepts we would be better prepared now.

Unfortunately a CME from the Sun isn't the only option for an EMP. It seems stars have a nasty habit of ejecting gas giants on occasion. At least that is an option in an EU. Or stars occasionally fission creating a binary system. Gas giants are reported to have ejected huge comets and planets. The consequences are part of myth and legend. It was a nightmare for people without a dependency on electricity, as far as we know. We are probably more vulnerable.

I've never said technology wouldn't return without a grid and electronics. It's just the consequences of the time lag.

It could be thousands of years before the next electrical event. Tens of thousands with any luck. Or tomorrow.

Dr Velikovsky wrote a book called Mankind in Amnesia. The premise is that people couldn't handle the idea of such vulnerability. They suppressed the memory of what had just transpired, Venus/Mars, into a morality play. Reality was too much. We, the descendants of the survivors inherit this problem. It explains the reluctance of people to entertain the possibility of catastrophe. It touches a nerve.

michael




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