What the wobble?

Beyond the boundaries of established science an avalanche of exotic ideas compete for our attention. Experts tell us that these ideas should not be permitted to take up the time of working scientists, and for the most part they are surely correct. But what about the gems in the rubble pile? By what ground-rules might we bring extraordinary new possibilities to light?

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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby Aardwolf » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:05 am

jacmac wrote:Actually, It makes sense in a gravity model.
No it doesn't. It's not even close.

jacmac wrote:In our solar system the average of the orbital planes of all the planets is called the invariable plane.
If the galactic plane is, in effect, a galactic invariable plane of the mass of all the stars and planets and stuff, etc, then our solar system could move up and down thru the galactic plane as it moves around the galactic center.
Why would it move up and down? It doesn't pass any stationary mass or slower/faster moving mass. We know that from observations that galactic rotation is flat which means everything out of the centre is moving at exactly the same speed. It's the reason they need Dark Matter.

jacmac wrote:Somewhere, can't find it now, the rate of the wobble is around 25/40 million years.
That must be a guess based on the gravity assumption and mass estimates of the matter in the galactic plane.
Worse than a guess. As per the paper I linked by scientists who have studied it;
caused by the unknown distribution of the unseen mass
They're just making it all up.

jacmac wrote:The average mass of bodies in the G plane would pull the solar system back after it's momentum carried it past the center of the plane alternately up then down etc.
What might have started all this up and down...who knows ?
Like I said you would need a local separated mass above the plane probably shaped akin to a Dark Matter Ruffle. Just as absurd as all the other types.
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby jacmac » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:30 am

Aardwolf
Why would it move up and down? It doesn't pass any stationary mass or slower/faster moving mass. We know that from observations that galactic rotation is flat which means everything out of the centre is moving at exactly the same speed.

Yes,
that is why there is no gravity resistance to a given up or down motion while passing through the center of the galactic plane. But, as the sun moves away from the center of gravity of the galactic plane(either up or down)
the majority of the mass in the G plane becomes MORE above , or MORE below; then gravity would pull back against the momentum to reverse the wobble.
Imagine your hands attached to two large rubber bands, attached to two stakes in the ground forty feet apart.
As you walk over the line between the stakes there is no resistance. As you get further away the stretching rubber bands will increasingly pull you back the other way. And then the same in the other direction.
The stakes in the ground represent the fixed average mass of the G plane.

Please remember I am only saying that for a gravity only model it makes sense(to me) to say this is happening.
I am responding to your first statement.
No, it's not possible gravitationally.

Jack
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby Cargo » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:05 pm

Except Gravity as rubber band, gets weaker the farther you stretch it.

It's also curious how gravity can be so selective, after all, the planets don't seem to be bothered by whatever uber gravity is pulling the Sun up and down, or around it's spiral or whatever.
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby Aardwolf » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:12 am

jacmac wrote:Aardwolf
Why would it move up and down? It doesn't pass any stationary mass or slower/faster moving mass. We know that from observations that galactic rotation is flat which means everything out of the centre is moving at exactly the same speed.

Yes,
that is why there is no gravity resistance to a given up or down motion while passing through the center of the galactic plane. But, as the sun moves away from the center of gravity of the galactic plane(either up or down)
the majority of the mass in the G plane becomes MORE above , or MORE below; then gravity would pull back against the momentum to reverse the wobble.
Imagine your hands attached to two large rubber bands, attached to two stakes in the ground forty feet apart.
As you walk over the line between the stakes there is no resistance. As you get further away the stretching rubber bands will increasingly pull you back the other way. And then the same in the other direction.
The stakes in the ground represent the fixed average mass of the G plane.

Please remember I am only saying that for a gravity only model it makes sense(to me) to say this is happening.
I am responding to your first statement.
No, it's not possible gravitationally.

Jack
As Cargo points out that's not a good analogy because gravity weakens as you recede away from the source. However there are further problems. What started this motion? Anything strong enough to gravitationally effect our movement through the plane should have affected all the thousands of stars locally to us but they have their own separate motions independent to our path.

Also, if we are moving up to 300 ly away from the plane, how are we maintaining a stable galactic rotational orbit? To maintain our galactic orbit we would at the same time need to move closer to the centre to be influenced uniformly by the barycentre of the galaxy, and as we move back into the plane move further away again. It's a miracle any star makes it around once.

The more you delve into galactic motions the more absurd it becomes. What's happened is that for centuries science has observed our extremely stable solar system with basically circular obits and derived a solution to the problem. It's human nature that once we became aware of much larger galactic structures we applied the same solution assuming it was universal. Unfortunately, galaxies are not governed by a relatively local orbital mechanism but they have been trying to shoehorn the solution in to it anyway and astronomy is stuck. And it will remain stuck until they realise galaxies don't rotate, they expand and all the problems associated with galaxy rotation, missing mass, dark matter etc. go away.
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby jacmac » Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:33 am

Aardwolf
As Cargo points out that's not a good analogy because gravity weakens as you recede away from the source.

Yes, a misleading analogy. Sorry.
But, here is one more attempt to explain my thought process.
A sun in the upward half of the wobble is in effect changing the location of the gravity source from half above and half below to more and more below and less and less above. The addition of mass below might be enough to overcome the loss of gravity from those receding masses already below.
I agree with your other objections to the whole process.
Jack
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby Aardwolf » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:07 am

jacmac wrote:Aardwolf
As Cargo points out that's not a good analogy because gravity weakens as you recede away from the source.

Yes, a misleading analogy. Sorry.
But, here is one more attempt to explain my thought process.
A sun in the upward half of the wobble is in effect changing the location of the gravity source from half above and half below to more and more below and less and less above. The addition of mass below might be enough to overcome the loss of gravity from those receding masses already below.
I agree with your other objections to the whole process.
Jack
A further test is what we observe in our solar system for similar structure. As far as I am aware neither the asteroid belts nor the larger planets rings have any of these oscillating characteristics. The rings are constrained in a very tight common plane while the asteroids have their own specific flat orbit planes, which can be perturbed locally for nearby interactions (which are rare as the distances between then are huge) but as far as I am aware there are no bodies oscillating up and down the plane.

Also, below is a link to a video predicting the motions (relative to us) of the nearest 2 million stars over the next 5 million years. I would expect some evident overall structure as we are expected to maintain part of an organised orbiting arm yet as far as I can tell it's chaos. More akin to my hypothesis that we have all just been ejected from the centre with just localised motion due to binaries, groups, clusters etc. It's actually quite beautiful but for me there's no coherent structure here.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=2+million+stars+motion&view=detail&mid=0241F7B5985D581D00730241F7B5985D581D0073&FORM=VIRE
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby allynh » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:49 pm

I've watched the video a few times and finally realized that it is a wrap around view.

Stars that exit the screen on the right appear on the left. Then I looked at the link on YouTube where they have commentary. (I've expanded the links for clarity.)

This is all quite terrifying. HA!

The motion of two million stars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag0qsSFJBAk
This video shows the 2 057 050 stars from the TGAS sample, which was published as part of the first data release of ESA's Gaia mission (Gaia DR1) on 14 September 2016, with the addition of 24 320 bright stars from the Hipparcos Catalogue that are not included in Gaia's first data release. The stars are plotted in Galactic coordinates and using a rectangular projection: in this, the plane of the Milky Way stands out as the horizontal band with greater density of stars.

The video starts from the positions of stars as measured by Gaia between 2014 and 2015, and shows how these positions are expected to evolve in the future, based on the proper motions from TGAS. The frames in the video are separated by 750 years, and the overall sequence covers 5 million years. The stripes visible in the early frames reflect the way Gaia scans the sky and the preliminary nature of the first data release; these artefacts are gradually washed out in the video as stars move across the sky.

The shape of the Orion constellation can be spotted towards the right edge of the frame, just below the Galactic Plane, at the beginning of the video. As the sequence proceeds, the familiar shape of this constellation (and others) evolves into a new pattern. Two stellar clusters – groups of stars that were born together and consequently move together – can be seen towards the left edge of the frame: these are the alpha Persei (Per OB3) and Pleiades open clusters.

Credit: ESA/Gaia/DPAC, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b...

More information about this video can be found at:

http://sci.esa.int/gaia/59005-the-motio ... ion-stars/

Full story:

http://sci.esa.int/gaia/59004-two-milli ... -the-move/

This is the "Full story" expanded.

Two million stars on the move
http://sci.esa.int/gaia/59004-two-milli ... -the-move/
12 April 2017

The changing face of our Galaxy is revealed in a new video from ESA’s Gaia mission. The motion of two million stars is traced 5 million years into the future using data from the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution, one of the products of the first Gaia data release. This provides a preview of the stellar motions that will be revealed in Gaia's future data releases, which will enable scientists to investigate the formation history of our Galaxy.

Two million stars in our Galaxy, with their motions traced five million years into the future. Click here for details and large versions of the video. Credit: ESA/Gaia/DPAC, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO

Stars move through our Galaxy, the Milky Way, although the changes in their positions on the sky are too small and slow to be appreciated with the naked eye over human timescales. These changes were first discovered in the eighteenth century by Edmond Halley, who compared stellar catalogues from his time to a catalogue compiled by the astronomer Hipparchus some two thousand years before. Nowadays, stellar motions can be detected with a few years' worth of high-precision astrometric observations, and ESA's Gaia satellite is currently leading the effort to pin them down at unprecedented accuracy.

A star’s velocity through space is described by the proper motion, which can be measured by monitoring the movement of a star across the sky, and the radial velocity, which quantifies the star's motion towards or away from us. The latter can be inferred from the shift towards blue or red wavelengths of certain features – absorption lines – in the star's spectrum.

Launched in 2013, Gaia started scientific operations in July 2014, scanning the sky repeatedly to obtain the most detailed 3D map of our Galaxy ever made. The first data release [1], published in September 2016, was based on data collected during Gaia's first 14 months of observations and comprised a list of 2D positions – on the plane of the sky – for more than one billion stars, as well as distances and proper motions for a subset of more than two million stars in the combined Tycho–Gaia Astrometric Solution, or TGAS.

The TGAS dataset consists of stars in common between Gaia's first year and the earlier Hipparcos and Tycho-2 Catalogues, both derived from ESA's Hipparcos mission, which charted the sky more than two decades ago.

This video shows the 2 057 050 stars from the TGAS sample, with the addition of 24 320 bright stars from the Hipparcos Catalogue that are not included in Gaia's first data release. The stars are plotted in Galactic coordinates and using a rectangular projection: in this, the plane of the Milky Way stands out as the horizontal band with greater density of stars. Brighter stars are shown as larger circles, and an indication of the true colour of each star is also provided; information about brightness and colour is based on the Tycho-2 catalogue from the Hipparcos mission.

The video starts from the positions of stars as measured by Gaia between 2014 and 2015, and shows how these positions are expected to evolve in the future, based on the proper motions from TGAS [2]. The frames in the video are separated by 750 years, and the overall sequence covers 5 million years. The stripes visible in the early frames reflect the way Gaia scans the sky and the preliminary nature of the first data release; these artefacts are gradually washed out in the video as stars move across the sky.

The location of the Orion constellation (right) and of two stellar clusters (left) in the first frame of the video. Credit: ESA/Gaia/DPAC, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO

The shape of the Orion constellation can be spotted towards the right edge of the frame, just below the Galactic Plane, at the beginning of the video. As the sequence proceeds, the familiar shape of this constellation (and others) evolves into a new pattern. Two stellar clusters – groups of stars that were born together and consequently move together – can be seen towards the left edge of the frame: these are the alpha Persei (Per OB3) and Pleiades open clusters.

Stars seem to move with a wide range of velocities in this video, with stars in the Galactic Plane moving quite slow and faster ones appearing over the entire frame. This is a perspective effect: most of the stars we see in the plane are much farther from us, and thus seem to be moving slower than the nearby stars, which are visible across the entire sky.

Some of the stars appear to dart across the sky with very high velocities: for some stars, this is an effect of their close passage to the Sun – for example, in about 1.35 million years, the star Gliese 710 will pass within about 13 500 au (10 trillion kilometres) from the Sun. Other stars seem to trace arcs from one side of the sky to the other, passing close to the galactic poles, accelerating and decelerating in the process: in fact, this acceleration and deceleration are spurious effects since these stars move with a constant velocity through space.

Stars located in the Milky Way's halo, a roughly spherical structure in which the Galactic Plane is embedded, also appear to move quite fast because stellar motions in the video are calculated with respect to the moving Sun, which is located in the Galactic Plane; however, halo stars move very slowly with respect to the centre of the Galaxy.

Although this visualisation displays only the motion of stars, there is an indication in the first frame of interstellar clouds of gas and dust that block our view of more distant stars. The subsequent sequence of stellar motions shows where each star is expected to be at a given time in the future, but does not track the motion of interstellar clouds. The fact that dark clouds seem to disappear over time is a spurious effect. Similarly, the video does not predict the future positions of stars that are currently hidden by interstellar material and hence have not been observed by Gaia.

After a few million years, the plane of the Milky Way appears to have shifted towards the right: this is mainly the consequence of the motion of the Sun with respect to that of other, nearby stars in the Milky Way. However, the regions that are depleted of stars in the video will not appear as such to future observers looking at the sky from Earth: instead, they will be replenished by stars that are not part of the TGAS sample and therefore not present in this view. The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, whose stars are not well sampled in the TGAS data, are not visible in this view.

Compiled as a taster to the much larger and more precise catalogue that will be published with Gaia's second data release, TGAS is twice as precise and contains almost 20 times as many stars as the previous definitive reference for astrometry, the Hipparcos Catalogue. As such, it represents a major advance in terms of high precision parallaxes and proper motions.

Scientists across the world have been combining TGAS data with other stellar catalogues assembled using ground-based observations, to obtain larger samples of stars for which positions, distances and proper motions are available. Thus far, three such catalogues have been compiled: the HSOY ("Hot Stuff for One Year") catalogue, which contains the proper motions for 580 million stars, the US Naval Observatory CCD Astrograph Catalog 5 (UCAC 5), listing 100 million proper motions, and the Gaia-PS1-SDSS (GPS1) proper motion catalogue, which includes 350 million proper motions.

Gaia's second data release, in April 2018, will include not only the positions, but also distances and proper motions for over one billion stars, as well as radial velocities for a small subset of them. This will mark a new era in the field of astrometry, enabling scientists to study the past positions of stars – to explore the formation history of our Galaxy – and to predict their future positions to a level of accuracy that was never achieved before.

Notes

[1] Gaia’s first data release (Gaia DR1) was published on 14 September 2016. This comprised a catalogue of the positions on the sky and the brightness of more than a billion stars – the largest all-sky survey of celestial objects to date – as well as the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS), containing the distances and motions for the two million stars in common between the Gaia dataset and the Hipparcos and Tycho-2 catalogues. The TGAS dataset is twice as precise and contains almost 20 times as many stars as the previous definitive reference for astrometry, the Hipparcos Catalogue.

[2] To calculate the future positions of stars, the astrometric measurements from the TGAS dataset were combined with a sample of 235,966 radial velocity measurements from the RAVE, GALAH, and APOGEE catalogues. The calculation is based on a linear extrapolation of the measured velocities of stars, which is a reasonable first-order approximation to study stellar motions on short timescales of millions of years, such as the ones shown in the video; to investigate longer timescales, scientists make use of N-body simulations, a numerical procedure that takes into account the gravity actually experienced by the stars at any time in the past or future.

Last Update: 04 September 2017

For further information please contact: SciTech.editorial@esa.int

Images And Videos

The motion of two million stars (http://sci.esa.int/jump.cfm?oid=59005)
All-sky view from Gaia-TGAS data (http://sci.esa.int/jump.cfm?oid=59006)
Related Links

Gaia's billion-star map hints at treasures to come (http://sci.esa.int/jump.cfm?oid=58272)
Related Publications

Altmann, M., et al. [2017] (http://sci.esa.int/jump.cfm?oid=59007)
Zacharias, N., et al. [2017] (http://sci.esa.int/jump.cfm?oid=59008)
Tian, H.-J., et al. [2017] (http://sci.esa.int/jump.cfm?oid=59009)
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby Cargo » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:08 pm

Well at least there's no collisions near us for the next 5 million years. :)
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby allynh » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:40 pm

This is a clip from the BBC Horizon program. They "shoot the Moon" hundreds of times a year to measure the distance. This episode is what made me start looking for how the Moon does not orbit around the Earth, that it orbits with the Earth around the Sun as I posted up thread.

Sending a Laser to the Moon - Horizon - Explore BBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpjbdH1y_ds

This is an odd video from the observatory. It explains what they are doing. Watch the video a few times, and you will see that the astronomer lady seems ready to be the evil genius out to conquer the world. Or is that just me over reacting. HA!

Shoot the Moon, the Apache Point Observatory Lunar Laser-Ranging Operation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npLmDTmKHB4

These are the wiki pages describing the observatory and experiment. Read the first a few times and see all the things that they are trying to test for.

- Basically there is this big rock floating beside us and we are watching it carefully. Do not be alarmed.

Apache Point Observatory Lunar Laser-ranging Operation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apache_Po ... _Operation

Lunar Laser Ranging experiment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Las ... experiment

This is a lecture about the experiment and the proposed new equipment. It is an hour long and hard for me to watch in one sitting. You will see what I mean. HA!

- I can see some of the problems with their design from an EU perspective.

Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Lunar Laser Ranging
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H44FlxkLCg

I'm having way too much fun with this.
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Re: What the wobble?

Unread postby lw1990 » Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:53 am

The reason the suns path is on that trajectory is because all galaxies begin in a spherical formation, over time the centrifugal force / spin force of the galaxy flattens most mass outside the center to the horizontal plane where centrifugal force is greatest. The reason for the wobble is that this process hasn't flattened 100% for the sun yet, but given more time it will. Or, it could have been disjointed by something, or a host of other reasons, but the fundamental probable reason for most stars wobbling outside the galactic centrifugal plane would be the first theory.

I believe the process is elliptical galaxies turn into spiral galaxies, spiral galaxies turn into ring galaxies. Galactic collisions can create irregular galaxies.

Given enough time left alone, galaxies can become 'ring galaxies' where they find equilibrium, and most of the mass gravitates to the galactic boundary. So, ring galaxies represent the oldest or longest-undisturbed galaxies (no galactic collisions). I believe the status quo theory is that ring galaxies are a result of another galaxy punching a symmetrical perfect hole in the ring galaxy, which is hilarious and obviously flawed.
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