Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Beyond the boundaries of established science an avalanche of exotic ideas compete for our attention. Experts tell us that these ideas should not be permitted to take up the time of working scientists, and for the most part they are surely correct. But what about the gems in the rubble pile? By what ground-rules might we bring extraordinary new possibilities to light?

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kiwi
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by kiwi » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:17 pm

Point Sparky?

Do you consider Robatailles work correct? ..... if so why?, what would you consider a proof of that ( the Kirchoff/Planck affair Im referring to) ..... Have you ever seen the ignorant un-qualified and down right nasty crap written about him in the various blogs etc around the net? ... why does he never defend himself? .... Do you see that as a sign of him capitulating?

The Little Heat Engine I offered as its a good piece written for peeps like you and I ... to get a fundamental understanding of Thermal Dynamics .... Plasma of course doesnt play nice .... the paper neglects E interactions beyond the inter-atomic-bonding ... no prob as its a hypothetical situation in the sense of the perfect Black Body being a real entity.

Dont be so hard on Aristarchus ..... "he started it" is not really acceptable?

Oh and a quick observation in general ... Any offer of a correct process involing the Sun's dynamic operation MUST(?) be able to account for the motoins of its minions? ...... Uranus as example? (no double-entendre being suggested) :twisted:

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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Lloyd » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:13 pm

Kiwi said: ever read this? :arrow: http://vixra.org/pdf/1310.0117v1.pdf
I think it was Lloyd :?: who invited PMR onto the forum to defend his work on the CMB :?: a year or 2 back?
Remember his reply? ......... I do 8-)
Sparky said: A very cryptic post! :? Any point you would like to make?
PMR likely stands for Pierre Robitaille. I don't think I contacted him, but I did contact Ralph Biggins, who worked with the Planck satellite or something, related to WMAP and the CMB. That discussion occurred in the thread, "Sun's Almost Perfectly Round Shape Baffles Scientists" at http://www.thunderbolts.info/forum/phpB ... f=3&t=6510. Kiwi, what is it that was said there that you're referring to?

I posted this before I saw Kiwi's last post above, but I guess I can leave it as it is anyway. So I hope you'll respond, Kiwi.

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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by kiwi » Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:07 pm

PMR likely stands for Pierre Robitaille. I don't think I contacted him, but I did contact Ralph Biggins, who worked with the Planck satellite or something, related to WMAP and the CMB. That discussion occurred in the thread, "Sun's Almost Perfectly Round Shape Baffles Scientists" at http://www.thunderbolts.info/forum/phpB ... f=3&t=6510. Kiwi, what is it that was said there that you're referring to?

I posted this before I saw Kiwi's last post above, but I guess I can leave it as it is anyway. So I hope you'll respond, Kiwi.
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No it was not in that thread ..... he was invited to comment but replied along the lines of "there is no reason to defend anything as it is all there" ... or words to that efect . I was fairly sure it was you , still are ... but yeah it was COBE /WMAP /PLANCK ( one of those) rather than his Solar model (of which I read all through in the Arvix PDF links and if remember correctly magnetic-reconn was invoked at the surface which kinda halted things for me,but what his model DOES do is blow the Gaseous Model clean out the water, triple A+ for that :idea: )

If Im right there must have been an e-mail exchange, could be quicker looking there :)

It comes to mind anyway to illustrate a point ..... If he was wrong about the situation of universality applied in the treatment of Black Boy radiation, he could never have built the 8 Tesla Scanner.... well,.. he did, and it works just fine, in fact there are 10-12T Machines in the pipeline by the MS facillities that in the same breath have ostracised him from the proffessional community

So what hope (or point, is there to demanding detailed certainties) in a situation where so much is not known .... when against the unassailable weight of evidence that he is "right" in PMR's case, it is still not enough to deter attacks and vicious criticisms?

That goes both ways in situations like this ... Charles has a right to have his say and be considered respectfully,.... and so does Don Scott et al

As a proffessional scientist the net forums/blogs etc are not the place to discuss issues ... it becomes a popularity contest etc,... was how PMR explained his refusal to participate when i asked him some months back .... he was not referring to the request made here, it was over comments in Youtube at the time his video's were released by the TB group

Some kinda "truce" may be in order ..... :idea: :lol:

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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Aristarchus » Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:43 pm

D_Archer wrote:So we are left with, what is electricity?. And: electricity comes from a galactic source (EU)
Here is where we get to crux of the matter. The consensus science disregards the relationship between magnetic fields and electric currents - well - at least in its studies of cosmology.

"In order to understand the phenomena in a certain plasma region, it is necessary to map not only the magnetic but also the electric field and the electric currents. Space is filled with a network of currents which transfer energy and momentum over large or very large distances. The currents often pinch to filamentary or surface currents. The latter are likely to give space, as also interstellar and intergalactic space, a cellular structure" ~ Hannes Alfven.

This is where I have difficulty with CC's hypothesis. It doesn't appear to comport with Occam's Razor, e.g., as an analogy, one can state that the laws of physics should be the same throughout the universe, but that doesn't necessarily conclude that the laws of physics are the same throughout the universe, just that you do not need to make an unnecessary assumption that the laws of physics are not the same, until confronted with repeated observations that defy conventional explanations. Quite frankly, the tone from other posters on this topic, outside of Lloyd, sound like frat boys flexing their intellect over beers on the weekend. They can regurgitate information and theories - even provide something that has a semblance of intellect, but is nevertheless not intelligent. They cannot distinguish between intellect and intelligence. CC is an intellectual. D. E. Scott is intelligent.

I've got CC commenting that literary style is not important, not realizing that it isn't simply writing style, but rather, the reason behind "uniformity." that comprises academic writing.

The paper supplied by CC has something in the order of 126 references - well - the uniformity of a paper is to allow readers to quickly access information while comparing it to other papers - quickly. Some of the best dissertations in the sciences are the shortest, and if they're longer, the reader can quickly go to based off the use of citation styles. I'm still going through CC's 166 pages, but I see short quotes, where I would think one would have "block quotes" for something that is a monograph and not a research paper.

The premise of this post: If you do not follow the rules of academic standards that allows the reader quick sources of verification, as well as distinguishing issues from a monograph that has a bibliography, as opposed to a shorter research paper supplying references. One might not be too successful at gaining those of the EU camp to engage you in a tit-for-tat, even though you have some detailed analysis. Let it go, have a beer, and continue to cherry-picking theories for something that should be for dialogue in Sci Fi.
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by CharlesChandler » Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:43 am

Aristarchus wrote:"In order to understand the phenomena in a certain plasma region, it is necessary to map not only the magnetic but also the electric field and the electric currents. Space is filled with a network of currents which transfer energy and momentum over large or very large distances. The currents often pinch to filamentary or surface currents. The latter are likely to give space, as also interstellar and intergalactic space, a cellular structure" ~ Hannes Alfven.
I agree. And I'm in the process of calculating the strengths of those forces, to identify where they are, and where they are not. By comparison, the EU is just doing "looks like a duck" studies of morphology, while contending that the driving forces are unknowable (as concerns cosmology), or at least unknowable to anybody who isn't an insider (as concerns SAFIRE). You want a quantitative analysis? OK -- what did you think of the number crunching that I did, concerning general star formation and/or the solar composition and/or the solar energy budget?
Aristarchus wrote:This is where I have difficulty with CC's hypothesis. It doesn't appear to comport with Occam's Razor, e.g., as an analogy, one can state that the laws of physics should be the same throughout the universe, but that doesn't necessarily conclude that the laws of physics are the same throughout the universe, just that you do not need to make an unnecessary assumption that the laws of physics are not the same, until confronted with repeated observations that defy conventional explanations.
I don't understand how this presents a difficulty with my work -- I totally agree with this. This is why I set aside constructs like QM, GR, MOND, MHD, and CDM. Before asserting new rules, one has to do one's due diligence, and make a thorough review of the known forces. This hasn't been done in astrophysics, so that's what I'm doing, and I'm getting interesting results by making quantified studies of the EM forces.

But then elsewhere you accuse me of being stuck in consensus science, because I start with the known and measurable forces, and run out the numbers. So I actually DO abide by Occam's Razor, but to the extent that I do, I'm stuck in consensus science, and refuse to acknowledge the (non-quantitative) "looks like a duck" musings of the EU.

And then you criticize me for not adhering strictly enough to academic writing standards for references (oops, I used citation numbers instead of the author/date style)...
Aristarchus wrote:The premise of this post: If you do not follow the rules of academic standards that allows the reader quick sources of verification, as well as distinguishing issues from a monograph that has a bibliography, as opposed to a shorter research paper supplying references.
Was that actually a sentence? :D Anyway...

And using (what you consider to be) the incorrect reference style for the length of work in question is just cause to characterize my work as Sci-Fi???...
Aristarchus wrote:One might not be too successful at gaining those of the EU camp to engage you in a tit-for-tat, even though you have some detailed analysis. Let it go, have a beer, and continue to cherry-picking theories for something that should be for dialogue in Sci Fi.
It's a sure sign of pure argumentativeness, when somebody argues from whichever side of the tracks seems to offer the better rhetorical advantage at the moment. It's just rare to see somebody toggle so obviously between diametrically opposed viewpoints so many times in such a short space. :D

BTW, I take stuff like this as a compliment. This is how people in the academic community respond when they can't find fault with the actual assertions being made -- they invoke all manner of rhetorical devices to try to manufacture an argumentative advantage. So, thanks for the compliment. ;)
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Lloyd » Sat Oct 25, 2014 9:26 am

CC said: OK -- what did you think of the number crunching that I did, concerning general star formation and/or the solar composition and/or the solar energy budget?
CC, where's that at?
Aristarchus said: The premise of this post: If you do not follow the rules of academic standards that allows the reader quick sources of verification, as well as distinguishing issues from a monograph that has a bibliography, as opposed to a shorter research paper supplying references[,] One might not be too successful at gaining those of the EU camp to engage you in a tit-for-tat, even though you have some detailed analysis.
Does CC's use of footnotes not give readers quick means of verification of statements? If your info can provide help for getting his model exposed to the public and respected, I hope you can be persuaded to provide as much such helpful info as you can. Or do you need to be persuaded of the correctness of his model first? I appreciate any help.
Quite frankly, the tone from other posters on this topic, outside of Lloyd, sound like frat boys flexing their intellect over beers on the weekend.
Impressions aren't reliable, you know. And I don't think that one is. I encourage everyone to post their agreements, disagreements and reasons.

CC, on the issue of space as insulator or conductor, have you explained in your paper/s how the HCS current was measured? Where and how has the current been measured, by which space probes? Was it measured near Earth and near the other planets, esp. Saturn? Was it measured at the Sun? Is there a plot of the measurements with distance from the Sun?

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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by CharlesChandler » Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:36 am

Lloyd wrote:
CC said: OK -- what did you think of the number crunching that I did, concerning general star formation and/or the solar composition and/or the solar energy budget?
CC, where's that at?
general star formation (i.e., dusty plasma collapse): http://qdl.scs-inc.us/?top=12692
solar elementary composition: http://qdl.scs-inc.us/?top=6723
energy budget (from the momenta of the implosion): http://qdl.scs-inc.us/?top=4866
Lloyd wrote:CC, on the issue of space as insulator or conductor, have you explained in your paper/s how the HCS current was measured? Where and how has the current been measured, by which space probes? Was it measured near Earth and near the other planets, esp. Saturn? Was it measured at the Sun? Is there a plot of the measurements with distance from the Sun?
Here are the sources that I cited that pertained directly to the HCS in my paper on the heliosphere. Give me a few days, and I can re-read all of those, and give direct answers to your questions.

Israelevich, P. L. et al., 2001: MHD simulation of the three-dimensional structure of the heliospheric current sheet. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 376: 288-291

Phillips, J. L. et al., 1995: Ulysses solar wind plasma observations from pole to pole. Geophysical Research Letters, 22 (23): 3301-3304

Cranmer, S. R., 2009: Testing and Refining Models of Slow Solar Wind Acceleration. SHINE 2009 Workshop

Johnson, R., 2013: The Nature of the Sun Revisited. Electric Universe Conference (Albuquerque)

Borovsky, J. E., 2008: Flux tube texture of the solar wind: Strands of the magnetic carpet at 1 AU? Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics (1978–2012), 113 (A8)

Is the formatting in those references OK?
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Chromium6 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:28 pm

So Charles does your model account for these items? Especially the Maunder type Grand Minima which is periodic over hundreds of years?
------
Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/dynamo.shtml
http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/A ... sp-2010-3/
------
2.2 The dynamo problem

In itself, the first term on the right hand side of this expression can obviously lead to exponential
amplification of the magnetic field, at a rate proportional to the local velocity gradient.
In the solar cycle context, the dynamo problem is reformulated towards identifying the circumstances
under which the flow fields observed and/or inferred in the Sun can sustain the cyclic
regeneration of the magnetic field associated with the observed solar cycle. This involves more
than merely sustaining the field. A model of the solar dynamo should also reproduce
  • * cyclic polarity reversals with a ∼ 10 yr half-period,
    * equatorward migration of the sunspot-generating deep toroidal field and its inferred strength,
    * poleward migration of the diffuse surface field,
    * observed phase lag between poloidal and toroidal components,
    * polar field strength,
    * observed antisymmetric parity,
    * predominantly negative (positive) magnetic helicity in the Northern (Southern) solar hemisphere.
At the next level of “sophistication”, a solar dynamo model should also be able to exhibit amplitude
fluctuations, and reproduce (at least qualitatively) the many empirical correlations found in the
sunspot record. These include an anticorrelation between cycle duration and amplitude (Waldmeier
Rule), alternation of higher-than-average and lower-than-average cycle amplitude (Gnevyshev–Ohl
Rule), good phase locking, and occasional epochs of suppressed amplitude over many cycles (the
so-called Grand Minima, of which the Maunder Minimum has become the archetype; more on
this in Section 5 below). One should finally add to the list torsional oscillations in the convective
envelope, with proper amplitude and phasing with respect to the magnetic cycle. This is a very
tall order by any standard.

Because of the great disparity of time- and length scales involved, and the fact that the outer
30% in radius of the Sun are the seat of vigorous, thermally-driven turbulent convective fluid
motions, the solar dynamo problem is very hard to tackle as a direct numerical simulation of the
full set of MHD equations (but do see Section 4.9 below). Most solar dynamo modelling work has
thus relied on simplification – usually drastic – of the MHD equations, as well as assumptions on
the structure of the Sun’s magnetic field and internal flows.
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by CharlesChandler » Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:27 pm

Chromium6 wrote:So Charles does your model account for these items? Especially the Maunder type Grand Minima which is periodic over hundreds of years?
That's a pretty open-ended question, so answering it will take some time, but there isn't anything worth watching on TV tonight, so here goes. :)

My model accounts for all of that stuff, and with physics that is much more straight-forward than the mainstream is trying to use. The bare-faced fact is that though they properly acknowledge that the Sun's magnetic fields are caused by moving charged particles, that is precisely where all of their problems start, and thus that is where the obfuscation starts, because in their models, there aren't any charge separations, nor any reason for net currents. The plasma flows that they identify shouldn't produce any magnetic fields at all, since they "should" be in quasi-neutral matter, and the fields from positive and negative charges moving in the same direction cancel each other out. So the first and toughest problem is explaining the Dynamo Effect without getting all weird with MHD abstractions.

Quite obviously, a dynamo requires that the rotation of the Sun results in net currents. My model is built from charged double-layers. Each of these layers generates its own field. We would typically assume that friction between these layers would eventually result in solid body rotation, where they all rotated at the same rate. If that were the case, the fields would cancel each other out. But the plasma is nearly frictionless, enabling differential rotation of the layers. And with opposing magnetic fields between them, alternating layers are trying to accelerate themselves and decelerate their opposing layers with the magnetic pressure between them. Thus it isn't surprising that one layer would end up traveling faster, and thus generating a net field. And since we know that different layers inside the Sun rotate at different rates, and that the difference toggles, wherein the faster one slows down, and the slower one speeds up (i.e., torsional oscillation), and that this oscillation is synchronized with the flipping of the net magnetic field, this is hardly conjecture. I simply assign electric charges to those oscillating differential rotations, and I get a dynamo that flips its polarity every 11 years.

To understand the trigger that forces the polarity reversal, we have to take a close look at the nature of the equatorial band, which speeds up early in the active phase, and spans from 30 degree N to 30 degrees S. As the active phase continues, this equatorial band shrinks, eventually only spanning from 5 degrees N to 5 degrees S, before the speed difference disappears altogether in the quiet phase. This band involves the entire depth of the convective zone, which in my model has 3 charged layers, in a PNP configuration. So the net magnetic field isn't coming from the fact that the equatorial band is rotating faster than the polar caps. If that were the case, the acceleration of the equatorial band would always produce the same field, not one that alternates from one cycle to the next. So the net field is coming from the differential rotation of vertically stratified layers of charges within the convective zone. The horizontal differentiation of speeds, between the equatorial band and the polar caps, is what causes a reconfiguration of the net field, triggering a flip in the overall polarity. So to follow along, you have to visualize stacked layers of alternating charges that generate opposing magnetic fields, and where the charge sign that is rotating the fastest generates the dominant field. Then an equatorial band involving all 3 layers rotates faster than the polar caps, generating an even more powerful field that splits the dominant field into pieces. As the equatorial band shrinks, these pieces resolve into an overall field whose polarity is opposite. In the following diagram, positive layers are shown in green, and negative layers are shown in red.

http://qdl.scs-inc.us/2ndParty/Images/C ... ly_wbg.png

The next step is to identify the reasons for sunspots occurring at the edges of the equatorial bands. In my model, sunspots are not eddies in the fluid -- they are electrodynamic hotspots -- "cathode spots" if you will. They form not because of opposing fluid flows, but because this is where the magnetic field intersects the surface perpendicular to it, enabling Birkeland currents to follow the lines of force directly out into space. So sunspots are electric currents enhanced by the orientation of the magnetic field.

So what would cause long-term fluctuations in sunspot activity, such as in the Maunder Minimum? The answer, of course, is that something is causing fluctuations in the intensity of the equatorial bands that form, and which establish the conditions for those sunspots. The faster the rotation of the equatorial bands, the more dramatic the sunspot activity. So then the question is, "What causes this variation in the speed of the equatorial bands?"

The more fundamental question, and which no other model to my knowledge addresses with mechanistic physics, is what causes the equatorial bands in the first place. (We first have to know what causes them, in order to understand why their intensity varies.)

This is yet another feature of the charged double-layer model. The charges are separated by electron degeneracy pressure under gravitational loading. If the pressure was static, the layers would be perfectly stable, and there wouldn't be any currents between them. (Hence they would be true "current-free double-layers" -- CFDLs.) But if the pressure fluctuates, there will be local currents across the boundaries. Under pressure, electrons are forced out of the deeper plasma, leaving it positively charged. If the pressure is relaxed, electrons can flow back into that plasma. If the pressure is restored, the electrons flow back out. And if the pressure fluctuates regularly, due to waves moving through the plasma, there will be alternating currents. So, are there waves in the Sun? Yes -- there are all modes of waves, and inside the Sun, at the boundary between charged double-layers, these waves will drive currents that will generate heat.

The type of wave that is the most significant in regulating the solar cycle is an s-wave that circumnavigates the Sun's equator at a depth of 125 Mm below the surface. Since it goes all of the wave around the Sun, it loops back on itself, and thus it falls into a harmonic frequency. This is the first wave mode in the following image:

http://soi.stanford.edu/press/ssu8-97/pmodes.gif

And while p-waves of many modes can occur inside the Sun, standing s-waves are only stable in the equatorial mode, since in any other direction, they will be refracted by the Coriolis Effect, and thereby dissipated.

The fact that there are s-waves deep inside the Sun is confirmed by the progression of supergranules across the surface in a wave-like pattern. There had to be a heat source to cause these thermal bubbles to rise, and it had to be deep inside the Sun. And it had to be a s-wave, because that's the only type of wave that only travels in an equatorial harmonic frequency. A wave-like heat source deep inside the Sun can only be an s-wave at the boundary between two charged double-layers, where the crests and troughs drive electric currents.

S-waves are also the only mechanistic explanation for the super-rotation of the equatorial bands. Thermal bubbles causes by s-waves will inherit the momentum of the particle motion at the tops of the wave crests, which in an s-wave, is parallel to the motion of the wave.

http://qdl.scs-inc.us/2ndParty/Images/C ... on_wbg.png

Another interesting aspect of these waves is that since the wave crests are driving electric currents, and since those generate heat, and since heat increases the pressure, the wave crests bounce off a wall that pushes back with extra force, so to say. Thus the release of energy by the wave crest pushes it back down, accelerating the next trough, and this attempts to accelerate the entire wave. Ah but the wave is trapped in a harmonic frequency. Anything that attempts to accelerate it will force it to undergo destructive interference that will attenuate the frequency and the height of the wave crests. Thus the waves are regulated, where there is plenty of energy to overcome friction and keep them going, but that energy source cannot create a runaway release, where the wave heights just keep getting bigger and bigger, because the harmonic frequency won't allow it. Nevertheless, in any system regulated by destructive interference that is coupled to the accelerator, the system will oscillate somewhat randomly. (Consider how engines idling with a centrifugal force governor tend to sputter.) So these equatorial s-waves rev up, but that triggers destructive interference that suppresses them, and the whole thing sputters, with an cycle of 11.2 years, but where the length of the cycle, and the intensity of the active phase, varies. And the Maunder Minimum was simply a period in which the sputtering wasn't quite so dramatic.

Next time, if you don't want such a verbose answer, ask a more narrowly-defined question. ;)
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Lloyd » Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:51 pm

CC said to Cr-6: Next time, if you don't want such a verbose answer, ask a more narrowly-defined question. ;)
Long interesting answers are usually fine with me. This would be even more interesting if it were on a video, you know. It' would also be easier for people to comprehend.

In your diagram of the solar cycle at http://qdl.scs-inc.us/2ndParty/Images/C ... ly_wbg.png you show north/south on the Sun. Apparently, that means geographic north/south, not magnetic north/south, which is shown instead with the big curved line with an arrow.

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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Sparky » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:15 am

Chromium6 wrote:
2.2 The dynamo problem
And a long list of pseudoscience copy and paste! Muddying the already murky waters of the opponents of CC's hypothesis. :roll:

Whereas, Charles gives a complete and detailed explanation, unique and brilliant!

Again, no contest!!! :D












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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Sparky » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:29 am

Kiwi"
Sparky,
ever read this? :arrow: http://vixra.org/pdf/1310.0117v1.pdf
I think it was Lloyd :?: who invited PMR onto the forum to defend his work on the CMB :?: a year or 2 back?

Remember his reply? ......... I do 8-)

Sparky,
A very cryptic post! :? Any point you would like to make?
Kiwi"
Do you consider Robatailles work correct? ..... why does he never defend himself? .... Do you see that as a sign of him capitulating?
Silence is not a sign of capitulation. And I am not qualified , at this point, to judge. :oops:
The Little Heat Engine I offered as its a good piece written for peeps like you and I ... to get a fundamental understanding of Thermal Dynamics .... Plasma of course doesnt play nice .... the paper neglects E interactions beyond the inter-atomic-bonding ... no prob as its a hypothetical situation in the sense of the perfect Black Body being a real entity.
Thank you for the link-----I need to study it. :?
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Chromium6 » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:29 am

Some recent coverage:

http://jto.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/ ... 70x505.jpg

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/1 ... E0uTKPLfQE

-----

This illustration from the CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique in Paris shows a region of the sun where a major solar flare occurred on Dec. 13, 2006. The model shows that a magnetic rope (gray) is maintained in equilibrium by overlaying arcades (orange). Researchers have discovered that such a magnetic field forms in the atmosphere of the sun just before a major solar flare. | AFP-JIJI
World / Science & Health

‘Twisted rope’ of charged particles may provide clue to dangerous solar storms

AFP-JIJI

Oct 23, 2014

PARIS – A “twisted rope” of magnetically charged energy precedes solar storms that have the potential to damage satellites and electricity grids, French scientists said on Wednesday.

A cord of magnetic flux emerges on the sun’s surface and grows and is squeezed upwards — and the following day, our star unleashes a blast of radiation, high-energy particles and magnetized plasma.

Solar outbursts are considered a rare but increasingly worrisome risk for satellites, global positioning systems and power grids.

Reporting in the journal Nature, a team led by Tahar Amari of France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) looked at a solar storm that brewed in December 2006 and was observed by a Japanese scientific satellite.

“We were able to identify the source of the eruption four days before it developed,” Amari said in an email exchange with AFP. “The magnetic field builds up in the shape of a twisted rope. The ends of the rope are anchored in sunspots,” he said, referring to relatively cool, highly magnetized features on the solar surface.

Solar storms can cause widespread breakdowns, disabling everything from power and radio to GPS geo-location and water supplies that rely on electrical pumps.

They begin with an explosion on the sun’s surface, known as a solar flare, sending X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation toward Earth.

Hours later, energetic particles follow, and these electrons and protons can electrify satellites and damage their electronics.

Next to arrive are coronal mass ejections (CME), billion-ton clouds of magnetized plasma that take a day or more to cross the sun-Earth gap.

A solar storm in 1859 caused an electrical surge on telegraph lines that prompted some offices to catch fire and operators to receive shocks. A 1989 event caused power outages for 5 million people in the Canadian province of Quebec.

A 2009 report by a panel of scientists assembled by NASA warned that a catastrophic solar storm could cost the United States alone up to $2 trillion in repairs in the first year — and it could take up to 10 years to fully recover.

Predicting when these events will take place, and if Earth lies in their path, has been thwart with problems.

On July 23, 2012, Earth narrowly missed the biggest storm in 150 years, an event big enough to “knock modern civilization back to the 18th century,” yet few humans were even aware of the peril, NASA said last July.

At present, Earth gets a few hours’ warning of a solar eruption thanks to the eyes of orbiting U.S. satellites.

But, said Amari, warning time should eventually improve.

“The work will help us fine tune knowledge about impending solar eruptions,” he said.

“Using real-time magnetic data and mathematical models, it will eventually be possible to predict space weather.”
On the Windhexe: ''An engineer could not have invented this,'' Winsness says. ''As an engineer, you don't try anything that's theoretically impossible.''

Chromium6
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by Chromium6 » Sun Oct 26, 2014 2:31 pm

They have two videos at the link below.
----
Characterizing and predicting the magnetic environment leading to solar eruptions

Tahar Amari,
Aurélien Canou
& Jean-Jacques Aly

Published online
22 October 2014
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v5 ... tml#videos

Also:
Biggest Sunspot in +10 Years | S0 News October 24, 2014
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTnD3dC8IqE
On the Windhexe: ''An engineer could not have invented this,'' Winsness says. ''As an engineer, you don't try anything that's theoretically impossible.''

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CharlesChandler
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Re: Debate: Aristarchus vs. Chandler

Post by CharlesChandler » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:01 am

CharlesChandler wrote:
jacmac wrote:Are these particles, whether becoming neutral, or becoming a non "current," STILL EXISTING well inside the 100 AU heliosphere ? And, assuming broad dispersion, would they not be available to be drawn back toward the sun to act, again, as a source of material for solar consumption. And would this not lower the amount of "new" particles needed to enter the heliosphere from outside ? Possible Recycling ?
Another great question! There IS evidence of matter falling back into the Sun. It appears to be the rare exception, and the bulk of the solar wind continues to expand, on out to the heliopause. But there ARE "growing Sun" proponents who believe that the Sun is still in the process of consuming matter. The "recycling Sun" would be halfway between that and the "dwindling Sun" model that (in various forms) dominates the consensus. Anyway, you could start here:

Sheeley, N. R., Jr.; Wang, Y., 2001: Coronal Inflows and Sector Magnetism. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 562 (1): L107

Here's a review of the same work:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 162617.htm
I just ran some more numbers relevant to the question here, and I'm not sure what to make of them.

1) The average density of the interplanetary medium is 3 protons per cm3, or 5.02 × 10−21 kg/m3. (See: http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2005/RandyAbbas.shtml)

2) The volume of the heliosphere, given a radius of 100 AU, is 1.40 × 1040 m3.

3) That volume, at that density, indicates a total mass for the IPM of 7.04 × 1019 kg.

4) The rate at which the Sun loses mass to the solar wind is currently estimated at 5.75 × 109 kg/s, which works out to 1.81 × 1017 kg/year. (See: Noerdlinger, P. D., 2008: Solar Mass Loss, the Astronomical Unit, and the Scale of the Solar System. arxiv, 0801.3807)

5) At that rate, it would only take the solar wind 389 years to fill the IPM, from a pure vacuum, to its current density. (7.04e19 / 1.81e17 = 388.95)

6) Either I'm slipping decimal points here and there, or something is seriously wrong with the precept that the solar wind is steadily streaming away from the Sun, and filling up the IPM with particles, so forcefully that it creates a bow shock where the IPM meets the interstellar medium. Rather, the bulk of the solar wind is getting captured by the planets, and/or it is falling back into the Sun, and/or the estimates for its mass are way, way wrong.
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